- Italian GDP increased in Q3 rather than flat-lined, as the advance release had suggested...
- ...It is still more likely to fall than rise in Q4, and we are lowering our forecasts for H1 2024.
- BTPs are rallying, and we look for further gains; we see yields falling to just over 3% by mid 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Recession fears should be quelled by November’s PMI.
UK
Still no sign of a rollover in services.
US
- In one line: Surprisingly resilient, but high interest rates are now a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Surprisingly resilient, but high interest rates are now a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Upward revision not a game changer.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Early days, but it looks like a decline in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tokyo core inflation excluding fresh food is nearing the BoJ target rate
Japan's services PMI indicates slowing growth
China’s Caixin services PMI ticked up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
India’s PMIs are entering 2024 with waning momentum
Weak start to Singaporean retail sales in Q4
Target range inflation in the Philippines is around the corner
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s PMIs combined, are the softest they’ve been in a year, pointing clearly to a GDP payback in Q4.
- Food inflation in the Philippines is reversing, but don’t forget about entrenched core disinflation.
- Singaporean retail sales growth has fallen to an eight-month low, but fundamentals remain strong.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Brazil’s economy dodged a contraction in Q3, despite the drag from rising real interest rates.
- Solid private consumption, for now, and resilient exports are overshadowing the capex recession.
- The outlook is deteriorating, as rates continue to stifle economic activity, but 2024 will be better.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- An ECB pivot is underway; it will be confirmed at next week’s policy meeting, and by the new forecasts.
- The January HICP report and wage data remain risks to our call for a first rate cut in March.
- Early data from France and Spain suggest euro area manufacturing slowed further at the start of Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- U.S. - Chair Powell’s Optionality Line is Nominal, Not Real; they’re Done
- EUROZONE- The ECB’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates is About to Change
- U.K. - BRC and Eurozone Data Suggest CPI Inflation Fell Again in November
- CHINA+ - Chinese Manufacturing Reports Weakening Demand
- EM ASIA - Make What You Will of India’s Absurd Q3 GDP... We’re Not Moved
- LATAM - An Inflection Point, Though Anaemic, for the Chilean Economy
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
