Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 May 2025

An overdue—and big—m/m correction in Philippine sales to close Q1

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, April 2025

• In one line: Back-to-back rate cuts are likely as sentiment collapses, but accelerating inflation will keep MPC guidance cautious.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, April 2025

• In one line: Car registrations tank as duties increase.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, April

We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.

8 May 2025 US Monitor An unhurried, uncertain FOMC likely to remain inactive in June

• The FOMC sees little cost in waiting to discover which side of its dual mandate needs most attention.
• A lot more tariff-sensitive data and news will come between the June and July meetings; the FOMC will wait.
• BED data point to a 20K fall in the birth-death model’s contribution to monthly payroll growth ahead.

8 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Tariff pause brings relief to LatAm currencies

• Brazilian Real —  Stability tested as external risks mount
• Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief, but…
• Chilean Peso — Buoyed by copper and strong real data

8 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor "Liberation Day" pushes ASEAN's PMI off a cliff, but let's not panic yet

• ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI plunged to a new post-Covid low in the wake of “Liberation Day”…
• …But it looks like China’s struggles are more pressing, for now, and it’s best to wait for hard IP data.
• We’ve slashed our 2025 average inflation forecast for the Philippines to just 1.8%, from 2.5%.

8 May2025 China+ Monitor PBoC moves to shore up growth ahead of trade talks

• The PBoC yesterday announced targeted policy-rate and RRR cuts to bolster growth ahead of trade talks.
• The interest rate cut came earlier than we expected, capitalising on room created by CNY strength.
• The Bank is guiding to targeted mortgage rate cuts to support the stumbling ‘ordinary’ housing market.

8 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Construction PMI rise still under-estimating growth in the sector

• The EZ construction PMI rose in April, on the back of a recovery in new orders in Germany. 
• Construction activity is still faring better in Italy than in Germany or France. 
• The sector is likely to support EZ GDP in Q2, as it seems to have done in Q1.

7 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation falls to zero; SNB will cut its key policy rate below 0%

• Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
• ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response. 
• We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.

8 May 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: strong food prices bump up our April call to 3.6%CPI

• We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, matching the MPC’s February forecast.
• Ofgem’s utility price hike, a massive water-bill increase, tax hikes and indexed prices drive the rise.
• Inflation will likely stay above 3% until January, despite recent falls in oil and natural gas prices.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 May 2025

Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US looks to have hit a ceiling
A quiet start to Q2 for retail sales in Vietnam, following a robust Q1
Lots of moving parts, but April saw no change to Vietnamese inflation
Below-target-range inflation in the Philippines looks set to persist until year-end
This bout of Thai deflation should be short and shallow

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 6 May 2025: Caixin services PMI points to business jitters

 Caixin services PMI points to business jitters over tariff worries

7 May 2025 Global Monitor We now think the ECB will cut its deposit rate to 1.75% by July

• US - Uncertainty over tariffs hasn’t killed jobs yet, but their imposition will hurt
• EUROZONE - Soft headline inflation will pave the way for a 1.75% depo-rate by July
• UK - MPC preview: all about the likely new downside scenario
• CHINA+ - US and China edge closer to trade talks after back-channel signals
• EM ASIA - Taiwan’s GDP gets a boost from “Liberation Day” tariff chaos
• LATAM - Mexico narrowly escapes recession, but the outlook is far from rosy

7 May 2025 US Monitor FOMC to remain non-committal on the 2025 rate outlook

• Markets have relaxed and the economy is holding up, so the FOMC needn’t signal a June easing today.
• The FOMC will have two more CPI reports and news on reciprocal tariffs if it waits until July.
• The latest trade data suggest pre-tariff stockpiling was very limited outside of a couple of sectors.

7 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's BCCh holds rates amid global risks and domestic fragilities

• BCCh held the policy rate at 5.0%, as external risks remain elevated and inflation is volatile.
• Resilient growth masks deeper job-market weaknesses, limiting the scope for near-term easing.
• Commodity-price declines highlight Chile’s vulnerability to shifting global trade dynamics.

7 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Waning momentum should refocus BI more towards growth

• Indonesian growth fell to 4.9% in Q1, as base effects hit public spending and construction flat-lined…
• …Machinery capex should come under more pressure soon, with Chinese import demand cratering.
• We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast slightly, to 4.9% from 5.0%, and still see 100bp in BI cuts.

7 May2025 China+ Monitor Manufacturing leads China's profit rebound, yet trade risks loom

• Industrial profitability improved further in Q1, on the back of strong manufacturing production.
• China’s industrial output was bolstered by stimulus demand and tariff front-loading activity.
• External uncertainty does not bode well for producers’ profit outlook, as overcapacity issues are worsening.

7 May 2025 UK Monitor Price pressures too strong for the MPC to shift to full 'dove mode'

• Uncertainty hammered the PMI in April, suggesting a chance that UK GDP will fall in Q2.
• The MPC will retain some caution, however, as the PMI shows underlying inflation accelerating.
• Rate-setters can get away with a couple of precautionary rate cuts in May and June.

6 May 2025 US Monitor Lower oil prices will provide very little boost to the economy at large

• The 20% drop in oil prices since early April probably will provide no real boost to the overall economy...
• ...the lift to consumers’ real incomes will be offset by weaker spending in energy-intensive areas.
• The ISM services prices index jumped in April, but other survey indicators suggest no cause for alarm.