Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Yet more grim news on the labor market.
Manufacturing is surviving rather than thriving.
Q3's strength is unlikely to be sustained.
In one line: Q3's strength is unlikely to be sustained.
- We look for a modest 75K rise in payrolls and a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in December.
- Retailers and hospitality firms hired cautiously; consumers continue to report worsening job availability.
- The FOMC still looks likely to pause in January, but the case for easing again will be robust by March.
- India’s punchy November IP print is a big head-fake; cooling manufacturing will hit Q4 GDP growth.
- Thailand’s exports to the US are still soaring, but likely to no real avail for the broader economy…
- …The overall Q4 numbers to date suggest the economy faces a real risk of a technical recession.
- China’s manufacturing PMIs ended the year on a positive note, but thanks to short-term effects.
- The construction PMI rose to its highest since March, but due to mild winter weather rather than stimulus.
- Policymakers will monitor the quasi-fiscal investment stimulus, while making only minor policy tweaks.
- The hawkish shift in the ECB’s December forecasts has increased the risk of easing in early 2026.
- Growth in Spain was revised down slightly, with inflation staying sticky at the end of 2025.
- EZ M1 growth is stabilising at a modest pace, while manufacturing PMIs signal downside risk to industry.
- The story of 2025 was growth averaging close to potential but inflation much higher than expected.
- We see similar trends in 2026, with growth rebounding in Q1 and inflation proving persistent.
- We expect the MPC to end its rate-cutting cycle with a 25bp Bank Rate reduction in April.
