- The Philippines’ consensus-matching CPI print for November sets the stage nicely for a third rate cut.
- Food disinflation led to the downside CPI surprise in Thailand last month, but expect no December cut.
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP grow th fell to 4.2%, from 4.9% in Q2; blame consumption, stocks and net exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Recent USDCNY weakness is largely a reflection of broad dollar strength…
- …But also falling Chinese government-bond yields, after an effective deposit-rate cut.
- November’s Caixin services PMI points to resilient activity but deflation pressure.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in October, despite a fall in retail sales.
- Professional services should rebound, and a jump in GP appointments signals strong healthcare growth.
- We still expect GDP to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, but risks lie to the downside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In France, Mr. Macron must go back to the drawing board as his government is ousted.
- German orders and French industrial production show industry was still on the back foot in October…
- ...Clouds continue to form on the horizon, even if some boost will come from pre-tariff US orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Chile’s economic recovery faces challenges from weak sentiment and external risks.
- Fiscal issues persist as the government plans spending cuts to address revenue shortfalls ahead.
- Inflation in Peru remains within the target range, signalling that the end of the easing cycle is nearing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Rising stock prices and other surveys point to a pickup in the Michigan confidence index this month...
- ...But a renewed rise in medium-term inflation expectations risks causing a headache for the Fed.
- A rise in the unemployment rate in November is still signalled by revised continuing claims data.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: China’s non-manufacturing growth stalls in November as construction weighs on activity.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s stimulus continues to give manufacturing activity a modest lift amid looming geopolitical uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea’s WDA exports rebound in November, but looming protectionist risks loom over growth.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s Q3 GDP is a mixed bag, with private consumption surprising on the upside but business investment falling.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's credit growth slows to historic lows amid muted household and business loan demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's deflation risks persist in October, but there is a silver lining
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s headline producer deflation masks stimulus-driven price upticks in construction materials
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s CPI near deflation weighed down by volatile items; uptick in services inflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s Q3 current account surplus widens; inward FDI remains negative for second consecutive quarter
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: One month’s data can be misleading; China's quarterly export growth has, in fact, decelerated.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves drop in October amid dollar strength and outflow pressures.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s wage growth holds steady, supporting case for BoJ hike in early 2025; Our revised forecasts post-Trump victory show weaker growth
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Budget hit sentiment, but we take some encouragement from the large upward revision to the PMI.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
