Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- China continues to suffer from deflation, amid falling commodity prices and trade disruption.
- Consumer core inflation remains subdued; producer prices for some export-related goods have fallen.
- The US–China tariff reprieve is growth-positive, but the outcome of negotiations remains highly uncertain.
- Investor sentiment, measured by the ZEW, improved in May despite a fall in the current conditions index.
- Investor sentiment now points to a rebound in the PMI as markets forget all about tariffs.
- Near-real time data also signal resilience in the EZ economy midway through the second quarter.
- The labour market is easing gradually, and vacancies suggest the market is now a little ‘loose’.
- But March and April look like the low point for jobs, with jobless claims steady and redundancies falling.
- Pay growth is stronger than slack suggests, and too punchy to deliver sustainable 2% inflation soon.
- The inflation outlook is little changed by the China “deal”; less trade will be rerouted via lower tariff nations.
- The export outlook, however, is brighter, so we are lifting our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1½%, from 1¼%.
- We look for unchanged April retail sales, but 0.5% gains in both sales ex-autos and the control measure.
- Brazil’s headline inflation is stable, but services and food prices signal still-sticky underlying pressures.
- The COPOM will hold rates steady as inflation risks linger, amid strong demand and volatile food costs.
- Colombia’s inflation accelerated in April, challenging BanRep’s easing plans and credibility.
- A temporary reprieve in the US–China trade war is worth far less than financial markets are assuming.
- Early signs suggest Mr. Trump will go hard on the EU, keeping uncertainty for the EZ economy elevated.
- Isabel Schnabel is coming out swinging for ECB hawks, but will her argument carry the day?
- Volatility at the long end of the gilt curve will fail to deter the MPC from continuing QT from October.
- The level of reserves in the system is elevated, and rate-setters are keen to dispose of APF assets.
- We expect the BoE to reduce the pace of QT only modestly in 2025/26, to £80B per year.
ACTIVITY UNWINDING AS STAMP-DUTY COSTS RISE...
- ...BUT WE STILL EXPECT HOUSE PRICES TO GAIN 4% IN 2025
- In one line: The housing market slowdown will be temporary according to the RICS.
- In one line: Keeping ‘gradual’ guidance disappointed market expectations, but the MPC are on track for a couple more cuts this year.
- In one line: Dovish DMP but the survey was run in the eye of the storm, business responses would likely be different now.
Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.
- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
In one line: Industry will likely support GDP again in Q2, but downside risks remain.
- In one line: BCRP resumes easing, citing stable inflation.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% gain in the April headline CPI; the egg price surge likely unwound…
- …But rising vehicle prices and a partial rebound in hotel room rates likely drove a 0.3% rise in the core CPI.
- It's too soon to see major tariff-related price hikes, and weak demand suggests airline fares stayed lower.
- Headline and core inflation in Mexico rose in April, driven mainly by seasonal services price rises…
- …But underlying trends are contained and demand remains subdued, allowing Banxico to cut this week.
- Peru’s BCRP cut rates to 4.50% and signalled a shift towards neutral, as inflation is well anchored, for now.
- Taiwan’s exports defied expectations, rising by 30% year-over-year in April; front-loading continues...
- ...It’s unclear when this will stop, but a surge in the value of the T WD is a new headwind.
- Inflation moderated to 2.0% in April, from 2.3% in March, but it’s still too soon to celebrate.
- China reportedly plans to improve its housing model by banning pre-sale housing.
- The move would allow the authorities to control the supply of housing better, stabilising prices.
- China’s foreign reserves rose on the back of a bigger revaluation effect, thanks to the weaker USD in April.
