Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Switzerland’s economy was on a tear before the trade-tariff shock hit.
- Strong growth is not inflationary, and is now slowing; the SNB will cut in June, taking rates below zero.
- EZ GDP was revised down in Q1 and will also slow ahead, but the unemployment rate will stay low.
- UK GDP was surprisingly strong again in March; the economy was ticking over fine ahead of the trade war.
- We think the MPC is far too pessimistic in pegging underlying growth at 0.0% in Q1.
- We raise our forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
A larger-than-expected Ramadan bump in Indonesian sales that isn’t expected to last
- The current menu of tariffs would lift the core PCE deflator by about 1pp, mostly over the next year.
- But uncertainties persist over the speed and extent of pass-through, and the tariff rates themselves.
- Ending exemptions and applying the threatened reciprocal tariffs could push core inflation as high as 4%.
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market justifies further gradual rate cuts.
- In one line: Easter distorts the BRC, but look through that and retail sales volumes are still rising strongly.
- In one line: Job and pay growth improve slightly as payroll tax drag eases, but the MPC downplay the REC now.
- In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.
- In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.
In one line: Investor sentiment rebounds.
- Indonesia’s March retail sales report was flattered by Ramadan effects; beware the slide in confidence.
- Malaysian sales were also strong in March, at 6.6% year-over-year, suggesting strong Q1 consumption.
- Indian WPI inflation dropped to a 13-month low in April, thanks in large part to waning food pressures.
- Brazil — Receding risk and foreign inflows
- Mexico — Rebounding, but volatility set to continue
- Chile — Boosted by tariff truce and domestic tailwinds
- Front-loaded fiscal stimulus can add 0.5pp to German growth this year, in the best-case scenario.
- Defence spending is poised to accelerate after a slow start to the year, but the multiplier is low.
- Front-loading of infrastructure spending via €100B in funding for local government is a key upside risk.
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, above the MPC’s forecast, 3.4%.
- We estimate that indexed, government-set and utility prices will add 120bp to April inflation.
- We see risks to the MPC’s forecast skewed upwards, as a raft of cost rises could prompt price rises.
- US - Inflation outlook little changed by China deal, but exports will be firmer
- EUROZONE - The US-China trade deal is worth less than markets believe
- UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
- CHINA+ - China considering a major overhaul of its housing-market model
- EM ASIA - Philippines’ Q1 wasn’t that bad but may be as good as it gets for 2025
- LATAM - Brazil’s COPOM sticks to the script but signals a long pause
- The April CPI report contained early signs of tariffs pushing up goods prices, with much more to come…
- …But services inflation remains relatively muted, and we think further declines are in the pipeline.
- The April NFIB survey points to much weaker capex spending and relatively subdued services inflation.
- LatAm will see muted benefit from the tariff rollback, as global demand and prices remain under pressure.
- The temporary truce reduces uncertainty but does not reverse regional capex and confidence headwinds.
- Chile’s disinflation is gaining traction, offering room for further monetary policy normalisation in H2.
- Indian inflation dropped to a 69-month low in April; we now see a terminal rate of 5.25% for the RBI.
- Below-average food inflation looks set to stay, with this year’s monsoon season expected to be fruitful.
- Note that CPI has yet to benefit fully from the slump in global oil prices, implying huge downward risk.
- China continues to suffer from deflation, amid falling commodity prices and trade disruption.
- Consumer core inflation remains subdued; producer prices for some export-related goods have fallen.
- The US–China tariff reprieve is growth-positive, but the outcome of negotiations remains highly uncertain.
- Investor sentiment, measured by the ZEW, improved in May despite a fall in the current conditions index.
- Investor sentiment now points to a rebound in the PMI as markets forget all about tariffs.
- Near-real time data also signal resilience in the EZ economy midway through the second quarter.
