Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Payrolls in the retail, wholesale and goods transportation sectors have leapt by 200K since November...
- ...These gains will unwind as goods demand slumps, but probably after July FOMC meeting.
- Tariffs of 50% on EU imports would boost the core PCE deflator by 0.5% and hit GDP by around 1%.
- Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed sharply in Q1, thanks to resilient exports and remittance inflows.
- Financial inflows weakened amid US trade tensions, global volatility, and domestic political uncertainty.
- The proposed US remittance tax and economic slow- down threaten to disrupt Mexico’s external stability.
- Taiwanese retail sales outright contracted in April, due to a drop in discretionary spending…
- …Consumer confidence surveys are turning sour, which will be bad news for already weak spending.
- Malaysian inflation held steady in April; while low, it could be artificially depressed by price controls.
- Japan’s core consumer inflation ticked up in April, due to the removal of energy subsidies for households.
- The BoJ will probably hold rates steady to help growth, amid tariff uncertainty, and despite elevated inflation.
- Soaring bond yields, partly due to political risks, may yet force the Bank to intervene.
- A sustained 50% tariff on EU exports to the US would send the EZ economy into recession.
- The route to an EU-US trade deal is relatively easy, but the EU will respond in kind to US tariff threats.
- The German economy was in rude health in Q1, but trade uncertainty will now weigh on growth.
- Hard data defy weak sentiment, bumping up our Q2 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter…
- …The uncertainty shock has faded, and inflation will likely stay above 3.0% until next April.
- So, we expect the MPC to skip an August cut, lowering rates only once more in 2025, in November.
Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.
Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
- In one line: Mexico’s economy outperforms in Q1, but risks loomlarge.
In one line: Services downturn clouding manufacturing’s recovery.
In one line: Services downturn clouding manufacturing’s recovery.
Indian services push the Q2 recovery forward in May
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW
- In one line: House prices jump in March as buyers rush to beat stamp duty, but we expect a partial unwind in the coming months.
- In one line: Inflation should run around 3.5% for the rest of the year, although an Easter boost means the April headline exaggerates the strength a little.
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
- The S&P composite PMI suggests underlying GDP growth is tracking around 2% for now...
- ...but the survey also points to much higher core goods inflation and pressures on services firms too.
- Markets rightly judge that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will boost debt issuance but do little to lift demand.
- An agricultural rebound drove headline GDP growth in Mexico in Q1, offsetting weakness elsewhere.
- Services and industrial output fell, suggesting the economy is heavily exposed to shocks.
- Persistent inflation, especially in services, complicates Banxico’s easing path amid deteriorating conditions.
