One spike in the core deflator after three very small increases does not change the trend.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
A further rise in claims lies ahead
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: We repeat; forget the discrepancy-inflated headline, India’s main engine is still stuttering.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Pegged back by a plunge in food inflation; the core HICP likely fell.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German inflation likely fell a touch more than we thought in February.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Feel free to continue ignoring the rosy headline.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Inflation fell further, but less than we anticipated; January spending was resilient to plunge in auto sales.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Don’t worry about the Tet noise, Vietnam's export recovery remains on track
Reported sales growth continues to tell only a small part of the—weak underlying—story
Noticeable seasonal demand for food and adverse base effects push inflation up to 4%
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- January’s jump in the core PCE deflator is noise, not signal; fundamental disinflationary forces are strong.
- February likely saw the third straight uptick in the ISM manufacturing index, but it remains depressed.
- Auto sales likely rebounded only partially last month after their January slump, and the trend is falling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- India’s Q4 GDP surprised massively to the upside, with growth rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3...
- ...But statistical discrepancies continue to inflate the headline, hiding the sluggishness in consumption.
- The drag from net trade eased too, but this was all down to an unwelcome quarterly plunge in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Premier Li is likely to announce targeted support for auto and home appliance consumption at the NPC...
- ...But this should be incremental demand support, rather than a big stimulus.
- China’s recovery will probably remain lacklustre but gradually gain traction in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EZ inflation fell further in February, probably to 2.5%; we think core inflation dipped by 0.3pp, to 3.0%.
- Consumers’ spending in the EZ got off to a slow start in Q1, but don’t write off the recovery just yet.
- The Swiss economy defied our expectations in Q4, boosted by strong growth in domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The stronger flow of consumer credit in January backs up the rebound in retail sales.
- Households’ real liquid assets are rising faster than pre-Covid, thanks to higher saving and lower inflation.
- Consumers do not need to raise their saving rate, so real wage gains will boost spending in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
CHICKENS COME HOME TO ROOST IN THAILAND
- ...FAREWELL TO AUTOMATIC FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IN INDIA
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- U.S. - Q: Where is the AI boom in the GDP numbers? A: Fast approaching
- EUROZONE- Inflation to wobble around Easter; PMI implies recovery still coming
- U.K.- £20B package of tax cuts coming, despite fragile public finances
- CHINA+ - BoK edging towards a rate cut; Q3 still most likely timing
- EM ASIA - Chickens have come home to roost in Thai GDP; what an abysmal Q4
- LATAM - Banxico to act on further evidence of Mexico’s slowdown and disinflation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- OER redux: The unexpected January spike likely—but not definitely—will persist for five more months.
- Pending home sales likely dropped in January as favorable weather effects from December reversed.
- The Chicago PMI likely rebounded this month, but single regional surveys are unreliable.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
