Pantheon Publications

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, May

In one line: China’s FX reserves rise modestly as bond revaluation offsets inflows

China+ Datanote: Caixin Services PMI, China, May

In one line : China's services activity ticks up, but deflationary pressure still lurking in the background.

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, April

In one line : Japanese inflation continues to outpace labour earnings; BoJ likely to hold rates in June.

June 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

IGNORE THE STAMP-DUTY-INDUCED PULLBACK...

• ...HOUSE PRICES WILL STILL GAIN 4.5% IN 2025

10 June 2025 US Monitor Core CPI likely gained momentum in May, but less than widely expected

• We think the core CPI rose by 0.3% in May, but a 0.2% increase looks more likely than a 0.4%.
• Indicators point to a moderate step up in the pace of core goods price rises; the surge is coming from June.
• Discretionary services prices likely were soft again, while the seasonals will pull down other services prices.

10 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's exports experience yet another month of front-loading

• Taiwan’s exports surprised in May, rising 38.6%, up from 29.9% in April; the front-loading continues…
• …This will likely mean the central bank holds back on easing when it meets next week.
• Thai deflation likely hit a low in May, but the strengthening THB could lead to its return next year.

10 June 2025 China+ Monitor China's inflation data still soft but with little tariff-war effect so far

• China’s intensifying producer deflation in May reflects soft energy prices, rather than any direct tariff impact.
• Lacklustre core consumer inflation is indicative of still- sluggish domestic demand.
• Policymakers are likely to stick with targeted support, as they gradually implement demand-side reforms.

10 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ wage growth will remain sticky throughout our forecast horizon

• EZ compensation per employee growth slowed in Q1, in line with easing negotiated wage growth. 
• Other measures out in the coming days are likely to also show slower wage growth in Q1. 
• We suspect wage growth will now plateau in the 2.5%-to-3.0% range, remaining historically high.

10 June 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: we still think May inflation will match the MPC's call

• We expect CPI inflation in May to slow to 3.4%—close to rounding to 3.3%—from 3.5% in April.
• A correction to Vehicle Excise Duty and airfare falls will be partly offset by strong food and clothes prices.
• May’s CPI inflation will likely match the MPC’s forecast, and services inflation will slightly exceed it. 

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, May

Producer deflation slammed by weakening international energy prices, weather-hit construction activity

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 June 2025: China's CPI still in mild deflation

China's CPI still in mild deflation, while producer deflation worsens due to weak global oil prices

Global Datanote: Inflation, Chile, May, 2025

• In one line: Disinflation remains on track.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, May, 2025

• In one line: Disinflation remains on track.

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, April

Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP/Retail Sales, Eurozone, Q1 2025/April 2025

In one line: Fastest growth in eleven quarters thanks to tariff-front-running-led jump in Irish GDP.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, May

• In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: Front-loading most of this year’s remaining cuts.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 June 2025

The RBI front-loads most of this year’s remaining cuts
Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US continues apace
Latest electricity-price hike nudges Vietnamese inflation up a touch
Vietnamese retail sales are having a torrid Q2
The resurgence in Philippine sales is topping out

2 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor All set for EZ inflation at 2.0% and a 25bp ECB rate cut this week

• A drop in EZ headline inflation to 2.0% in May should be enough to pull a 25bp ECB rate cut over the line.
• The ECB’s 2026 HICP forecasts likely will determine whether doves get rates cut to 1.75% over summer.
• German retail sales fell in April, but the upturn in EZ real M1 growth accelerated further.

9 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Irish distortions return; we revise down our Q2 EZ GDP forecast

• EZ GDP was propelled higher in Q1 on the back of an upwardly revised Irish GDP figure...
• ...This was, in turn, down to tariff front-running practices, which will almost surely reverse in Q2.
• We are cutting our forecast for EZ Q2 GDP, but the strength in Q1 means our 2025 call is still up a tad.