Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
- …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
- Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ industry was a drag on GDP growth in Q1, despite German industry coming out of recession.
- February data confirm services led the rebound in EZ GDP in Q1 and will stay in the driving seat for now.
- The boost from construction appears to be reversing already, and the fall in the PMI in April bodes ill.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in April, and March’s fall to be revised smaller.
- The jobless rate should rise to 4.3%, and private-sector regular pay will gain 0.4% month-to-month.
- Wages will likely beat the MPC’s forecast but preserve the picture of a gradually easing labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI health insurance prices are set to slow sharply from April, thanks to methodological changes.
- Prices should flatline from April to September, but the 1½% trend in the PCE measure will continue.
- MBS data on mortgage applications likely nudged up last week, but from a very low base.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
- …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
- The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- April’s RMB343B PSL net repayment is probably related to the PBoC’s desire to cushion bond yields.
- The April Caixin services activity PMI barely slowed, a rosier picture than the drop in the official index.
- The Caixin index is tracking the service-sector output data better than the official index.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- German factory orders fell again in March, as capital and intermediate goods demand faltered...
- ...Turnover data suggest production figures will be better than expected today, but still down.
- Retail sales confirm the EZ consumer was still show- ing little interest in goods in Q1; will this change?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.1% in April, from 3.2% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility price-cap cut contributes about a third of that inflation fall, the rest is broad-based.
- Services inflation likely slowed to 5.4% in April, 0.1pp stronger than the MPC expects.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Banks are continuing to tighten credit availability for business and consumers.
- The real cost of bank loans to small businesses is approaching 8%; no wonder they are cutting costs.
- The lag between banks' willingness to extend consumer credit and lending flows is long; a slowdown lies ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The turnaround in ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact, despite the April slip…
- …But the region’s more export-oriented countries are still underperforming; orders remain in the red.
- Indonesian inflation saw a positive downside surprise in April, as food inflation turned a corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Both the Homebase data and the NFIB survey signal slower job growth in April, but the numbers are noisy.
- One softer print would not trigger a Fed response, but it would make the May number critical for markets.
- The ISM services survey likely will provide further reassurance on the underlying inflation outlook.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed likely will start easing in late Q3; LatAm policymakers will have a more difficult task ahead.
- Colombia’s BanRep met expectations with a ‘bold’ 50bp rate cut; we expect more of the same.
- Chile’s economy faced challenges at the end of Q1, yet the fundamental trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Korea’s April manufacturing PMI points to improving output and demand trends year-to-date.
- But burgeoning cost pressures are making firms cautious on hiring and inventory purchasing.
- The BoK is likely to worry about these cost pressures disrupting the slowing trend in consumer inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Swiss inflation rose in April on the back of a broad- based increase in prices...
- ...It should fall again to near 1% in coming months, though, so the SNB can continue its cutting cycle.
- We continue to look for more rate cuts this year than the consensus; 75bp-worth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation and growth have beaten MPC forecasts, but market rate expectations have overreacted.
- So, next week’s new MPC forecasts will signal earlier and more cuts than the market is currently pricing.
- We expect the MPC to vote 8-to-1 to keep rates onhold and still look for the first cut in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Chair Powell batted away talk of a further rate hike, and hinted that labor market fears are emerging.
- Everything will change if payroll growth slows sharply; that won't happen overnight, but it is coming.
- Still no signs of a real manufacturing recovery, and inflation risks from the sector are minimal.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexican Peso — Underperforming amid risk-off
- Colombian Peso —Resilience amid gradual rate cuts
- Chilean Peso — Poised for rebound amid benign factors
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Korea’s WDA exports have grown solidly in recent months, pointing to a sustained recovery in demand.
- Semiconductors accounted for 70% of growth in April; both US and Chinese demand was resilient.
- Weak currency played a role in supporting exports; the level of export values is still below that in 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Real rates are still rising sharply in the Eurozone; it makes sense for the ECB to cut rates soon.
- Bonds are not priced for the ECB deposit rate to stay at 4%; if they were, yields would be a lot higher.
- What are the ECB’s assumptions for rates underlying its inflation forecasts? Answers on a postcard…
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think GDP was unchanged in March, after rising 0.1% in February.
- That would be enough to deliver Q1 growth of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- Consumer services contributed 0.16pp of that, but the turnaround has been
broad-based across sectors.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
