The rebalancing continues; chance of a Dec hike dips further
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase suggests modest downside risk to Octo- ber payrolls, but margins of error are wide.
- Unemployment is creeping higher as labor force growth surges, but the monthly data are wild cards.
- The ISM services index is holding up, but is trending sideways, and medium-term risk is to the downside.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Unit labor costs consistent with the inflation target, if sustained
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed preserves optionality, but two rounds of softer jobs and CPI data should keep them on hold.
- Unit labor costs growth is slowing sharply, signalling low inflation once the Covid echoes fade.
- Unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing signals a renewed slowdown and an inventory correction.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - Unemployment Likely will Rise even if Job Gains Remain Close to 200K
- EUROZONE- A Dovish ECB, Despite No Talk of Rate Cuts Next Year
- U.K. - MPC Won’t Hint at 2024 Rate Cuts Just Yet, Despite Data Surprises
- CHINA+ - More Stimulus Provides a Growth Cushion Going into 2024
- EM ASIA - BSP’s Off-Cycle Rate Hike a Rash Move; Expect No More This Quarter
- LATAM - We Still Expect Brazil’s Selic Rate to Be Cut to Around 7% Next Year
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Labor cost inflation is slowing; further progress likely, depressing core services PCE inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed will stick to its position today that policy optionality is still required; inflation not yet beaten.
- ISM manufacturing has likely stalled; the modest uptick in the sector has run into the spike in rates.
- Auto sales probably rose marginally in October, but the overall trend is about flat.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
