- In one line: Independence sufficiently proven, prep for a June cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Further interest rate cuts likely, as inflation pressures continue to ease.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- U.S. - No softening yet in job growth, but Q2 likely will be very different
- EUROZONE - All set for a dovish hold by the ECB this week; rates will be cut in June
U.K.- Forecast Review: MPC has the confidence to cut, gradually
- CHINA+ - BoK likely to sit tight until Q3, mindful of rising cost pressures
- EM ASIA - Singaporean retail sales growth spikes in February on festive demand
- LATAM - Will Brazil’s industrial sector improve after a poor start to 2024?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - Core PCE back on track following the January jump
- EUROZONE - EZ inflation likely fell to just over 2% in March; what now, ECB?
- U.K. - House prices to rise 4% in 2024 as confidence returns
- CHINA+ - China’s residential property market still festering; no big policy shift yet
- EM ASIA - Firmer external demand should power up Singapore’s Q1 GDP
- LATAM - Disinflation continues in Brazil, despite food-related pressures
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Still touch and go for the recovery in EZ industry.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Manufacturing output is stabilising, but a real rebound remains distant
- EUROZONE - How will the ECB deal with inflationary fiscal tightening?
- U.K. - How fast and how far can the MPC cut interest rates?
- CHINA+ - Japan’s wage-price spiral still in its infancy; BoJ admits it moved early
- EM ASIA - CBC hikes to nip the impact of higher electricity tariffs in the bud
- LATAM - Banxico finally joins the LatAm easing party, but with caution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Poor economic activity will put a lid on inflation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
In one line: Lifted by strong momentum in Southern Europe.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Better, but likely not enough to prevent another decline in GDP in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The SNB beats the ECB to the punch on rate cuts.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Anticipated hike to electricity tariffs spooks the CBC into a surprise hike.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The Board exercises caution, as forward guidance is limited to one meeting.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- In one line: Still waiting for the first of a couple green lights.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - The wall between the Fed and the private sector is gone; rates now hurt
- EUROZONE - How resilient is the consensus position on the ECB?
- U.K. - No trigger for change by the MPC; rate cuts still a few months away
- CHINA+ - China’s credit data point to a dull economy; policy uplift yet to come
- EM ASIA - Raising our 2024 CPI forecast for India, and delaying the first RBI cut
- LATAM - Chile’s recovery to continue, along with robust external accounts
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Next couple of months’ data will be more noise than signal.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: The early 2024 misery in exports continues.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
