In one line: Confirming that net exports were a drag on GDP in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Retail sales slid in each month in Q3, making it a quarter to forget for the sector.
- Services spending rose in August, picking up the slack; surveys suggest it won’t do so again in Q4.
- We are revising down our consumption call for Q4 and therefore now look for a shallow EZ recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not enough to prevent a quarterly fall in Q3 overall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ unemployment rate will rise further, but prob- ably not enough to sway ECB hawks...
- ...Still, we think the Bank will cut rates come March, as inflation likely will fall faster than it expects.
- Unemployment will rise most in industry, which will stay in recession until global trade recovers.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: French industry stuttered at the end of Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The slide in Swiss inflation appears to have stalled but we do not think the SNB needs to panic-hike.
- GDP in Switzerland likely fell in Q3—following in Ger- many’s footsteps—and likely will decline again in Q4.
- The election outcome means we should expect “more of the same” on the Swiss fiscal front.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: No end in sight for the recession in EZ manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: No end in sight for the recession in EZ manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Avoided a technical recession, just.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: More confirmation that weakness spread into Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
