- In one line: Core industries are still flying high, but the upsurge in refined petroleum products looks overstretched.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: The ECB’s 2024 core inflation forecasts will come down in Q4, a lot.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The ECB’s 2024 core inflation forecasts will come down in Q4, a lot.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The unemployment rate will rise soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A decent start to Q3, but short-term trends remain abysmal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Core inflation fell further; Q3 spending lifted by a leap in auto sales?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Where is the rebound in consumption?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Easing Tokyo CPI reinforces the case for the BoJ keeping the policy rate on hold
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Banxico keeps interest rates on hold as threats to inflation increase, on the back of a solid economy…
- …But the upside risks to inflation will fade soon, and the Fed will probably adopt a dovish shift.
- These factors will ease Banxico’s fears, and softening economic activity will allow it to cut rates.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Shutdown averted for now, but the path to passing spending bills by November 17 is narrow and rocky.
- Core PCE inflation is slowing across a broad front, with further sustained declines ahead.
- Third quarter consumption likely rose at a 3½% rate in Q3, but the fourth quarter will be much softer.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- GDP growth in Vietnam jumped to 5.3% in Q3, from 4.1% in Q2, but industry base effects helped a lot.
- We’ve raised our 2023 forecast to 4.4%, and still see growth rising to 6.0% in 2024, with exports reviving.
- The chances of a fourth SBV rate cut are waning, mainly because fiscal policy is doing more to help.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ headline and core inflation surprised to the downside in September; both will fall further in Q4.
- Accelerated disinflation in core goods means we’re reducing our 2024 core CPI forecast by 0.2pp.
- Our forecasts for 2024 now differ materially from the ECB’s; the Bank will have to adjust in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone