Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- The BSP yesterday left the target reverse repo rate at 6.50%, with its statement still sounding hawkish…
- …But Governor Remolona was more dove than hawk, saying a rate cut in August is now possible.
- The BSP cut its 2024 CPI forecast to 3.8%; it’s been behind the curve and can afford to shoot lower.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth rose back up above zero in April for the first time in 11 months, to 1.7%…
- …But this was mostly thanks to favourable technicalities; exports are still broadly stagnating.
- A durable return to positive growth should ensue in H2, in large part due to commodity prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in India continued to slip trivially in April, but we see some positive underlying trends in food.
- The RBI has a narrow window to start easing in Q3, with the room allowed by low core CPI set to vanish.
- Indonesian retail sales saw a promising Q1 revival, but hold judgement until Ramadan effects wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian IP missed expectations in March, with growth slowing to 4.9%, from 5.6% in February…
- …More softness is likely this quarter, with trends at the margin unspectacular; ignore the rosy PMIs.
- An overdue payback in GDP growth to the tune of 0.6pp is likely in Q1, based purely on the IP signal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines inched up to 5.7% in Q1, from 5.5% in Q4, but fell short of the consensus.
- We have raised our 2024 GDP forecast to 5.2%, still implying a drop from 2023; consumption is frail.
- The post-Covid catch-up in investment still has legs, but plunging building permits is a big red flag.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
- …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
- Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
- …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
- The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The turnaround in ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact, despite the April slip…
- …But the region’s more export-oriented countries are still underperforming; orders remain in the red.
- Indonesian inflation saw a positive downside surprise in April, as food inflation turned a corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s customs trade balance missed widely in March; the adjusted gap sank to a 19-month low…
- …Export leading indicators remain lacklustre, while import growth is getting a lift from global oil prices.
- Vietnam’s trade surplus collapsed in April; it looks like export growth truly has peaked, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BI surprised yesterday with a 25bp hike, yet again citing a need to stabilise the IDR; this is just overkill.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth in March barely stayed in the black; price effects saved the day…
- …Real wage growth continues to tread water around zero percent, making a Q2 turnaround unlikely.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The strong 2024 run in India’s PMIs continued in April, but they still point to sub-8% GDP growth…
- …Hiring appears to have regained momentum recently, but the hard EPFO data remain sluggish.
- Continued headline disinflation in Singapore will be tough, as the low-hanging fruit has been picked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s surplus leapt unexpectedly to a 13-month high, with exports reversing their 2024 drop.
- The outlook for key commodities has brightened, pointing to an imminent return to positive growth…
- …Real demand from China also looks set to pop, but this probably won’t be felt until Q2, at the earliest.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth plummeted in March, but our advice is to take the figure in your stride...
- ...As the headline was dragged down by a series of one-off factors that should unwind in April.
- Indonesian retail sales growth spiked during the February election; don’t expect any follow-through.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Net sales growth in the Philippines remains in the red; remittances now look unlikely to save the day.
- The consumer debt binge is lasting much longer than we thought, but the payback is looming.
- The much-needed savings rebuild looks to be reversing, and confidence is now plunging.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian industrial production growth rebounded in February, but the climate remains challenging…
- …The inventory-to-sales ratio continues to deteriorate, while consumer demand is sagging.
Core inflation fell to a new low in March; thankfully, food-price stickiness isn’t impacting expectations.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT yesterday sprang no surprise, keeping its policy rate at 2.50% in another five-to-two split…
- …But its latest forecasts and rhetoric betray waning confidence; we continue to see the first cut in June.
- Taiwanese export growth rebounded strongly in March; watch the boom in AI-related shipments.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP held rates yesterday but sounded more hawkish, raising its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.0%.
- We still expect 100bp in cuts this year, with the first in June; food inflation will start co-operating in May.
- Another day, another Lunar New Year boost to February retail sales growth; this time in Malaysia.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The big drop in Vietnamese GDP growth to 5.7% in Q1 was due mainly to seasonal noise unwinding…
- …Trade enjoyed a robust start to the year, but the same cannot be said for household spending.
- We push back our expectation for the first BI cut to Q4, given rising and stubborn food inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Ignore the narrowing of Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February; the broad trend is deterioration…
- …Year-over-year export growth is topping out , with a number of major markets still very sluggish.
- Don’t get carried away by the jump in Taiwanese retail sales growth in February to nearly 10%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia left the BI rate unchanged at 6.00% yesterday, as universally expected.
- Its ongoing insistence on the need to safeguard the IDR is unwarranted; the carry trade has long turned.
- The Board’s thinking on GDP is becoming more muddled; expect to see the first 25bp cut in June.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
