Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Bank Indonesia left the BI rate unchanged at 6.00% yesterday, as universally expected.
- Its ongoing insistence on the need to safeguard the IDR is unwarranted; the carry trade has long turned.
- The Board’s thinking on GDP is becoming more muddled; expect to see the first 25bp cut in June.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth bounced merely to 1.1% in January, remaining well below par…
- …The passenger-car sales data are even more abysmal, amid a steady deterioration in confidence.
- We reckon Malaysian retail sales growth bottomed out in January and will likely rise from February.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Food inflation in India looks set to remain sticky until mid-year, amid the collapse in farm output growth...
- ...Forcing us to raise our 2024 CPI forecast to 4.6%, and push back the likely first rate cut to August.
- The slowdown in industry is becoming increasingly broad-based and will soon hit GDP growth hard.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ unemployment rate jumped in Q1, to 4.5%; a smaller labour force is partly to blame.
- Weakness is surfacing, and another minimum wage hike will make matters worse outside the capital.
- The regional reserves rebuild is far from complete; Vietnam's and the Philippines’ lag is the main worry.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM opted to hold rates at its March meeting, as inflation remains benign and growth intact.
- It signalled that the MYR is undervalued, but we expect it not to turn to interest rates to address this.
- The slump in Philippine sales is nearly a year old, underscoring the weakness of household budgets.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI hit a six-month high in February, but underlying demand remains poor.
- Price pressures are building at the margins again, though the year-over-year story is still deflationary.
- Vietnam’s impressive export recovery is on track, despite a Tet-induced growth crash in February.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s Q4 GDP surprised massively to the upside, with growth rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3...
- ...But statistical discrepancies continue to inflate the headline, hiding the sluggishness in consumption.
- The drag from net trade eased too, but this was all down to an unwelcome quarterly plunge in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect a sharper slowdown in Q4 Indian GDP growth than consensus, to 5.6% from 7.6% in Q3...
- ...The main blow will likely come from capex hitting a wall, while the discrepancies lift should fade further.
- Lunar New Year noise played a lot of tricks on Thai trade data for January; read this for the real story.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’re firmly with the consensus today, expecting Bank Indonesia to hold the BI rate at 6.00%.
- We continue to believe the first cut will come in Q2; the consensus is too pessimistic on inflation.
- BI is banking partly on construction to lift GDP growth in 2024, but the underlying trends are weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s Q4 GDP report was poor, with growth inching up to 1.7%, from 1.4% in Q3.
- Net trade dealt a big blow to quarterly growth; the low-hanging fruit from the tourism recovery is over.
- Consumption ground to a halt, moving closer to the monthly data, which have been poor for some time.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Prabowo Subianto looks to have won by a landslide in Indonesia, removing the need for a run-off.
- The trade surplus fell sharply in January; its support for the rupiah will be a lot less robust in 2024.
- The recovery in export growth is stumbling, with commodities lifeless and China still weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian IP stuttered at the end of last year, implying no repeat in Q4 GDP of manufacturing’s heroics.
- The RAI’s retail sales data remain weak, pointing to a continuation of below-par consumption growth.
- We’ll be raising our Q4 GDP growth forecast to about 5.5%, still well below the 6%-plus consensus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’ve raised our 2024 average CPI forecast in India to 4.2%, in the wake of January’s upside surprise.
- Crucially, the core rate is still falling, showing the headline the way down, as food inflation wanes...
- ...We see no clash between falling core and ‘brisk’ GDP; RBI surveys back our suspicion of the latter.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI’s MPC voted 5-to-1 to keep the repo rate at 6.50%, but Mr. Varma’s dissent is no real surprise.
- We still expect a Q2 cut; Q4 GDP likely will fall short of the MPC’s forecast and 4% inflation is imminent.
- The BoT stood pat on Wednesday, as expected, but telegraphed a big cut to its 2024 growth forecast.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine inflation is now below the mid-point of the BSP’s target range, bolstering our Q2 cut call.
- The Bank of Thailand will stand pat today, but the MPC’s pessimistic CPI views no longer hold water.
- We’re still waiting on the new weights for Indonesian CPI, but we continue to expect cuts to start in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth rebounded slightly to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.9% in Q3, in line with expectations...
- ...But the uptick owes a lot to inventories, which can’t be relied on, with external demand still fragile.
- Private domestic demand ended 2023 softly; we still expect annual growth to slip to 4.8% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines cooled only modestly in Q4 to 5.6%, from 6.0% in Q3...
- ...Trade and government spending were big drags, offset inconsequentially by inventories and noise.
- Fixed investment was the only real bright spot, but this is also benefiting still from the Covid catch-up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s partial trade numbers for January point to a sharp monthly correction in two-way flows.
- The absolute retail sales numbers cast a lot of doubt over the supposedly gentle slide in growth.
- Headline inflation is likely to remain sticky in H1, but it should inevitably follow the core rate down.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean non-oil domestic export growth fell into the red in December, as we predicted...
- ...With support to the headline from volatile categories unwinding, and electronics weakening.
- Sticking to our Q2 call for BI rate cuts; policy easing has started in less urgent conditions in the past.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Net trade will likely shave 0.4pp off Indonesia's Q4 GDP growth, supporting our soft 4.7% forecast...
- ...But the underlying trends are positive; import base effects and stalling tourism will be to blame.
- India’s trade gap has narrowed swiftly from the record low in October; we examine the main drivers.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
