Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March 2026

• In one line: War in the Middle East will hit sentiment in the manufacturing sector hard.

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, February 2026

• In one line:The public finances will be hit hard if high energy prices persist for long.

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, February 2026

• In one line: Infrastructure sectors carrying more of the weight alone; overall momentum still solid.

March- US Economic Chartbook

HIGHER GAS PRICES WILL HIT REAL INCOMES BY 1%

• THE FED WILL WORRY MORE ABOUT JOBS THAN THE CPI IN Q4

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, January 2026

In one line: Net trade in goods on track for a boost to growth in Q1. 

Global Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, March 2026

• In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery”

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 March 2026: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"

In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"

23 March 2026 US Monitor Markets are overlooking the labor market damage of the oil shock

• The 1990 oil shock was key to the ensuing recession; the FOMC eventually eased despite 6% inflation.
• The economy is less oil intensive and firms’ balance sheets are more robust now; a recession is unlikely...
• ...But this FOMC has been very responsive to labor market weakness; we still expect easing by year-end.

23 March 2026 LatAm Monitor Colombia's growth holds up, but outlook weakens as distortions rise

• Consumption in Colombia remains strong, but weak capex undermines medium-term growth prospects.
• Tight financial conditions and fiscal consolidation will weigh on demand, exposing fragile growth dynamics.
• Higher oil prices offer support, but inflation pressures and policy tightening limit upside for activity.

23 March 2026 Emerging Asia BSP's April meeting 'live', but a hike for signal sake would be misguided

• Last week’s fuel-price gains in the Philippines and the firmer oil outlook will lead to 4%-plus inflation…
• … A hike is now on the table for April, but it would be rash, given the more forgiving backdrop this time.
• The start of modest fuel-price rises in Thailand will help lift the economy out of outright deflation.

23 March 2026 China+ Monitor China's private sector starting to revive in selected areas

• China is seeking to rehabilitate private firms, as they can support national goals in tech development.
• Private firms have made some gains over the past couple of years, but are still recovering.
• They are bullish on prospects for sale s and consumer prices, but still glum on producer prices.

23 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor Once more unto the fiscal breach, as energy prices soar

• EZ governments spent 2.5% of GDP in 2022 and 2023 to offset the hit from rising energy prices.
• Italy and Spain are first out the blocks now, with tax cuts on fuel and electricity to combat higher prices.
• Untargeted fiscal support will make a forceful tightening by the ECB more likely.

23 March 2026 UK Monitor Week in review: worse shock means more rate hikes are possible

• Higher-for-longer energy prices raise our inflation forecast, and we now build in second-round effects.
• We cut our GDP growth forecast another 0.5%—now 0.8% since the war started—partly due to higher rates.
• Market pricing for three hikes is too many, but not wildly too many given upside risk to energy.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, January 2026

In one line: No help to GDP growth from construction in Q1.