Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, June 2025

In one line: Export growth is in for a weaker H2.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, July

In one line: Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 August 2025

Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China’s manufacturing sector rocked by trade uncertainty

Duncan WrigleyGlobal

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 August 2025: Caixin PMI reports falling export orders

Caixin PMI reports falling export orders
Korean exports hold up thanks to front-loading, but domestic demand sags

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 August 2025 US Monitor Dire July employment report makes a September easing far more likely

Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.

Samuel TombsUS

4 August 2025 LatAm Monitor Tariff reprieve to lift Mexico's GDP, but recovery remains delicate

Mexico’s industrial and service sectors rebounded in Q2, offsetting weak agriculture.
The US tariff extension brings near-term relief, supporting manufacturing, exports and capex.
Domestic policy volatility, weak sentiment and a real wage slowdown still weigh on broader momentum.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 August 2025 Emerging Respite for ASEAN factories, but road ahead set to stay bumpy

ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI returned to the black in July, just, for the first time since “Liberation Day ”…
…But leading indicators remain bleak; the US’s ‘final’ tariffs are at least broadly a win for EM Asia.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore paused and set a high bar for more easing in the short run.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 August 2025 China+ Monitor China's manufacturing sector hit by trade risk and extreme weather

China’s July manufacturing PMIs were buffeted by headwinds from trade risk and bad weather.
But sentiment improved slightly, showing business confidence in new products and markets.
The dipping construction PMI partly reflects a downshift in local-government fiscal stimulus.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Our call for a September rate cut hanging in the balance

The July HICP has raised the bar significantly for a September ECB rate cut…
…But we won’t give up on our call until we see inflation data for August.
A fall in core inflation, volatile markets, and US economic fragility could still pull a cut over the line.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 August 2025 UK Monitor Forecast review: steady growth and sticky inflation

Underlying growth is fine, helped by consumers; we look for GDP to grow by 1.2% in both 2025 and 2026.
Payroll falls are a risk, but we think they exaggerate job losses, and in any case vacancies are stabilising.
We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, so the MPC will have to pause after it cuts in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK