Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Easing, as economic uncertainty rises.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
- Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
- But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China’s Q1 GDP growth was boosted by demand stimulus and export front-loading pre-tariff turmoil
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Solid jobs and accelerating wages will keep the MPC cautious heading into the trade war.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP soars in February but the MPC will look through the pre-Tariff data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fracturing global trade will begin to weigh on the trade balance in the coming months.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market is cooling now but activity will pick up in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Tariffs hit investor sentiment hard; industrial production will feel the tariff burn but not until later in the year probably.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Banks tighten lending standards for firms & demand for credit eases again even before the shock of “Liberation Day".
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - Stagnation still lies ahead, as the trade war narrows, but deepens
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut by 25bp this week but offer little guidance
- UK - Week in review: GDP jumps in February but tariffs will hurt growth
- CHINA+ - Beyond tit-for-tat tariffs: what Xi’s China is really fighting for
- EM ASIA - ‘Factory Asia’—ex-China—won’t break, even if April 9 tariffs return
- LATAM - Brazil battles inflation as activity surprises and fiscal risks linger
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The March retail sales report suggests consumers’ spending rose by 1% in Q1.
- But the hit from tariffs points to stagnant consumption, more or less, in Q2 and Q3.
- The 0.3% increase in March manufacturing output looks like the calm before the tariff storm.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- China’s Q1 growth was already cooling from the Q4 high; hence March’s additional fiscal stimulus.
- Front-loading effects also boosted March exports and industrial output, but this should prove fleeting.
- China will need to stoke domestic demand further, as exports risk hitting a wall in the coming quarters.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Downside risks are building for EZ inflation, due mainly to the accelerated decline in energy prices.
- Initial evidence points to a disinflationary tariff shock to EZ core goods inflation, but keep an open mind.
- Services inflation will snap back in April, due to Easter effects, but the trend is still downward.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A May rate cut is a racing certainty after CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast in March.
- But underlying services inflation held steady at 4.5%, while tax hikes, government-set price increases…
- ...and unwinding erratic factors weighing on March inflation will still drive CPI inflation to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Soft, but selling prices point to upside risks for the core.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
