- The April composite PMI signals 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- Rising new orders and buoyant business confidence suggest that solid growth will be maintained.
- Services inflation slowed according to the PMI, but input costs surged after April’s minimum-wage hike.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Lower borrowing costs sparked a wave of refinancing in Q1, which likely will unwind in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening growth and slowing inflation, but watch the jump in input costs.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
An ugly report, but don't call it stagflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, and the outlook is benign
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: A setback, in line with the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The six-month spell of Thai deflation comes to an end
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- April's slowdown in payrolls looks like real weakness; revisions likely will push the numbers down further.
- Near-zero growth in payrolls lies ahead if the NFIB survey retains its status as the best leading indicator.
- The ISM services survey has joined the growing list of surveys showing that labor demand is weakening.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
An uptrend in initial claims is probably still in the pipeline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A poor end to Q1, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A poor end to Q1, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Korean export recovery continues, thanks to resilient US and Chinese demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Ooof a big increase, but inflation is still within the SNB’s target range.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line : Grim, but the reality on the ground is likely better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line : Grim, but the reality on the ground is likely better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Food inflation finally turns a corner; more of this, please.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Export-oriented manufacturers continue to underperform.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
