Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Brazil’s IPCA-15 upside surprise reflects education and transport seasonality, not renewed pressures.
- Core trends have stabilised near target, reinforcing scope for gradual COPOM easing from this month.
- Fiscal uncertainty clouds the rate-cutting pace despite soft activity, steady prices and BRL rebound.
- GDP growth in India cooled modestly to 7.8% in Q4, from 8.4% in Q3, based on the revamped series…
- …‘Statistical discrepancies’ are now much less of a headache; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 6.7%.
- The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling is a clear win for EM Asia; risks to export growth, in all, are receding.
- Governor Ueda’s musings on a March or April policy rate hike are likely intended to bolster JPY…
- …Less currency pressure and low headline inflation will likely allow the BoJ to delay hiking until Q4.
- Tokyo headline inflation edged up only 0.1pp to a still restrained 1.6% in February.
- Inflation in the EZ stayed well below 2% in February, but this is not enough to shift the ECB towards a cut.
- The Swiss economy resumed growth in Q4, and is poised for even stronger GDP in 2026.
- Switzerland will continue to negotiate a US trade deal, which should revive its industry and exports.
- Easing inflation expectations and a soft labour-market report seal a March rate cut...
- ...But the activity data remain solid, and business surveys point to sticky price pressures.
- So, we continue to expect just one more cut to Bank Rate this year.
In one line: Sentiment edges down, price pressures remain elevated.
In one line: A strong rise in M1 growth; did lending growth really slow?
In one line: Slight deterioration, but consumers and retailers are upbeat.
In one line: Dovish, but far from underwriting a further rate cut.
- Tariff revenues were continuing to fall even before the Supreme Court’s ruling, as supply chains evolved.
- The effective rate likely is now just 8%; revenues are too low and the outlook too unclear for more tax cuts.
- February auto sales likely will maintain the downward trend; risks skewed towards a further decline ahead.
- An agriculture-led rebound lifted Argentina’s Q4 growth, yet job gains remain limited and uneven.
- Inflation is picking up at the margin, testing the durability of the success seen in recent quarters.
- Fiscal surpluses anchor credibility, but market access hinges on sustained discipline and reform.
- The Bank of Korea stood pat in February, and introduced longer-term forward guidance on rate direction.
- Governor Rhee cited persistent financial stability risk and a stronger growth outlook as reasons to hold.
- The newly introduced Fed-style dot-plot suggests no change in policy rate for at least six months.
- M1 growth leapt in January, but loan growth to non-financial firms slowed…or did it?
- The EC confidence survey fell in February, but the probability of a recession in the Eurozone is still low.
- Business sentiment in Italy edged down this month, but we remain optimistic about growth in 2026.
- House prices rose by a respectable 2.4% on average in Q4, down only slightly from 2.5% in Q4 2026.
- 2025’s stamp-duty hike and mansion tax are weighing on house prices in London and the South East.
- A sharp drop in household inflation expectations in February seals a March rate cut.
In one line: Dovish, but far from underwriting a further rate cut.
In one line: Sentiment improved, but unemployment fears remain high.
- In one line: Members say “why wait” via a surprise cut.
- In one line: Members say “why wait” via a surprise cut.
In one line: Strong momentum in domestic demand, but risks still loom in early 2026.
- - CHINA'S POLICYMAKERS FOCUS ON LONGER-TERM GOALS
- - PM TAKAICHI LIKELY MORE PRAGMATIC THAN FEARED
- - BOK RELIEF AS KRW PRESSURE EASES, FOR NOW
