Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, September 2025

• In one line: Manufacturing activity to remain weak in the second half of the year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, September 2025

• In one line: House prices jump in September but we look for a subdued second half of the year.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, September 2025

Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, September, 2025

• In one line: Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, September 2025

Far from definitive.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, August, 2025

• In one line:  Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, August, 2025

• In one line: Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.

3 October 2025 US Monitor Is AI a key driver of this year's slowdown in payrolls?

• The impact of AI on labor demand so far looks small, even for the most at-risk occupations.
• The payroll slowdown this year has far more to do with trade and immigration policies. 
• Auto sales are set to weaken, as an EV tax credit expires and tariffs start to push up prices. 

3 October 2025 LatAm Monitor BanRep holds rates as inflation persists, fiscal weakness deepens

• Split in BanRep’s Board highlights tension between resilient domestic demand and stubborn inflation.
• Loss of IMF credit line underscores fiscal fragility, fuelling market concerns over Colombia’s credibility.
• Minimum wage talks risk entrenching inflation, limiting BanRep’s scope for near-term easing.

3 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Surprise leap in Indonesia's surplus in August isn't worth celebrating

• Indonesia’s trade surplus surprised massively to the upside in August, but largely on seasonal factors…
• …Underlying two-way trade growth continues to ebb; exports are fighting a handful of headwinds.
• Inflation rose above BI’s 2.5% target for the first time in over a year, but a Q4 rate cut is still on the table.

3 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation is low and set to fall, but the SNB will ignore it

• Swiss inflation held at 0.2% for the third straight month; it will remain stuck near zero until Q2 2026. 
• The SNB has said it will ignore negative inflation prints in the near term… 
• ...We expect the next rate move to be up, in 2027, despite downside risks to our inflation forecasts.

3 October 2025 UK Monitor Stubborn wage and price growth will keep the MPC cautious

• Bank of England revises data without explanation, shaking confidence in their numbers.
• Revised DMP data show job falls easing, spare capacity stable and price pressures stubborn.
• Underlying disinflation has ceased according to the DMP so the MPC will have to stay cautious.

EZ Datanote: PMIs, Switzerland, September 2025

In on line: Rebounding, but tariff-sensitive manufacturing is weakening.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, September

• In one line: Food inflation is firming up fast, but core disinflation is a strong anchor.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, August

• In one line: Ignore the jump in the surplus; import demand is crashing.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, September

• In one line: A sturdy—but narrow—end-Q3 bump.

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, September 2025

• In one line: Pause continues, but further easing is still very much on the table.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 October 2025

The RBI’s pause continues, but further easing is still very much on the table
A sturdy—but narrow—end-Q3 bump in ASEAN manufacturing
Ignore the August jump in Indonesia's surplus; import demand is crashing
Food inflation is firming up fast in Indonesia, but core disinflation is a strong anchor

September 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS POLICY STAYS RESTRICTIVE…

• …DISINFLATION ADVANCES, BUT CORE PRESSURES CLOUD OUTLOOK

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, September 2025

Worsening job availability points to a further rise in the unemployment rate.