- In one line: Holding—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The RBI holds—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down
An initial sign that the front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US is over
A decent start to Q3 for still-depressed Vietnamese retail sales
Transport deflation re-steepens in Vietnam; it's here to stay, for now
June leap in Thai food inflation reverses completely
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Probably a false alarm on services inflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazilian Real — Under strain as trade risk rises
- Mexican Peso — Holding firm amid headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Rally ended by an array of risks
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The RBI stood pat this month, commendably in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
- Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
- Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Italian industrial output edged up in June, while German turnover figures point to a rise there too.
- EZ industry fared well in Q2, a further correction in Irish production permitting.
- EZ retail sales recorded a decent June and suggest goods spending supported GDP in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuels and airfares rise.
- CPI collected close to school vacations should boost travel prices, while domestic hotel prices likely rose.
- We expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September and still be at 3.7% in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Decent, and Q3 looks set to be good too.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soaring as transport and refineries kick into gear
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Buoyant Caixin services PMI points to pockets of strength, such as tourism
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Big investment rebound drives Indonesia’s Q2 upside surprise
July should mark the low for Philippine inflation, but short-term downside risks dominate
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Dire July employment report makes a September easing far more likely
- EUROZONE - Our ECB and SNB rate cut calls now hang in the balance
- UK - Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade
- CHINA+ - China’s Politburo strikes confident tone about trade risks
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s retail sales shrink in Q2; downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call
- LATAM - Brazil holds rates steady as tariffs cloud growth and inflation outlook
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Chile's non-mining sectors remain robust, helped by strong consumption and improving investment.
- The slump in mining output is weighing on headline growth, but external demand and copper are buffers.
- Fiscal pressures are rising as revenues lag behind target, raising the risk of budget-tightening ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
- …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
- The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The EZ PMI was revised down, largely due to a downward revision to France’s already-weak index.
- Spain’s and Italy’s composite PMIs are much higher than those of France and Germany.
- French industrial production soared in June, but mainly on the back of a one-off in transport.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in June, as retail sales, real estate and autos output rebound.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, above the 0.1% forecast in the MPC’s May MPR.
- We think growth will run close to potential for the rest of 2025, giving the MPC little room for manoeuvre.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
