Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Consensus-beating headline GDP growth in Q1 was boosted by a post-Budget rebound in activity.
- We see few reasons, however, to challenge the data on grounds of residual seasonality.
- Rather, tariff front-running, tax changes and pre-Budget uncertainty explain recent growth trends.
- In one line: Still resilient to Middle East shock.
- Indian factories are hurting more from the war, but the worst of the bleeding in exports looks done…
- …Oil products will eventually respond to the price signal; Russian imports are a stop-gap for crude.
- We’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to a still-dovish 3.9% after correcting an error in our food-price tracker.
In one line: Japan’s export growth accelerates on rising legacy chip prices
In one line: Korea’s chip export boom masks the underlying K-shaped recovery
In one line: Japan's services activity stalls in May, likely hit by slowing inbound tourism
In one line: Japan’s manufacturing expansion slows in May, but precautionary front-loading continues
In one line: Japan’s Q1 GDP beats expectations, but extended Strait closure complicates BoJ tightening
- In one line: Japan's inflation slowed in April, but that probably won't dissuade the BoJ from hiking
In one line: Japan's slowing inflation probably won't dissuade the BoJ from hiking rates next month
Supply chain disruptions adding to price pressures.
Flat trend in permits points to relapse in starts soon.
- In one line: Retail sales remain resilient, but momentum still looks soft.
- GDPNow’s forecast for 4.3% growth in Q2 is based on too little data to take it seriously.
- We look for growth of 1½%, given the weak underlying trend in consumption and non-tech capex.
- The FOMC is more worried about inflation expectations, but they have no bite in a weak labor market.
- Retail sales remain resilient in Mexico, though discretionary demand looks uneven and selective.
- Banxico’s latest communication strongly suggests the easing cycle has now ended.
- Restrictive real rates likely will continue to curb credit and discretionary spending in H2.
- Japan’s finance minister said the government would aim to limit new bond issuance for the extra budget.
- The BoJ will likely look past slowing inflation in April, given the prospect of rising imported energy costs.
- Renewed currency weakness is likely to be the final straw, pushing the BoJ to a rate hike in June.
- The disinflation from last year’s rally in EURUSD is almost over, but China is still exporting deflation.
- EURUSD would need to rally to 1.25-to-1.30 to offer the ECB any disinflationary help; that looks unlikely.
- Our models signal modest upside risk to EURUSD, but we think 1.17 is a reasonable baseline for now.
- Weak employment data and a sharp drop in the PMI challenge our view that growth was holding up.
- But the PMI over-reacts to uncertainty, the job fall will be revised away, and consumers’ confidence held up.
- Oil prices and Mr. Burnham accepting fiscal rules explain gilt-yield falls; economic data had little effect.
Indian manufacturing still struggling; pop in prices fading
On hold for now, but the likelihood of easing further ahead in underrated.
