The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Down, but big revision to the April data suggests Q2 was good.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart; upper house election poses JGB risks
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart
upper house election poses JGB risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Most regional currencies have rallied on still-attractive carry and resilient terms-of-trade.
- Trade tensions with the US are reigniting inflation worries and complicating monetary policy decisions.
- Central banks face narrowing scope for cuts, as political risk and global uncertainty intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian GDP growth rose in Q2, beating consensus and exactly matching our 4.5% forecast .
- Still, manufacturing and mining are showing worrying signs and face further headwinds.
- Singapore’s surprisingly strong Q2 GDP likely will be just a respite; expect a sharper slowdown in H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’re lowering our Q2 GDP growth forecast for France, but lifting it for Spain and Italy…
- …We now think EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, with the risk tilted to the upside.
- Near-term risks are balanced as we prepare to be marked-to-market on our H2 slowdown call.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
