Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: National CPI, Japan, January 2026

In one line: Japan's cooling consumer inflation justifies BoJ taking time on rate hike

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Japan, February 2026

In one line: Flash PMIs lifted by tech sector and landslide election victory 

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 February 2026: Japan's cooling consumer inflation

In one line: Cooling consumer inflation justifies BoJ taking time on rate hike 

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, January 2026

Relapsing independently of the snowstorms.

EZ Datanote: Advance EC Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, February 2026

In one line: EZ consumer sentiment up once again, but by only a bit this time.

PM Datanote: US International Trade / Advance Inventories, December 2025

Much weaker GDP growth of about 2% now looks likely in Q4

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, December, 2025

• In one line: Activity ended 2025 on a soft note, reinforcing the case for easing ahead.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, December, 2025

• In one line: Activity ended 2025 on a soft note, reinforcing the case for easing ahead.

EZ Datanote: Construction Output, Eurozone, December 2025

In one line: Things are looking up, aside from a small bump in the road in January.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, January 2026

Firmly on hold…for now.

February 2026- US Economic Chartbook

JANUARY PAYROLLS ARE JUST A FLASH IN THE PAN...

• ...SLOW JOB GAINS & LOWER INFLATION WILL SPUR EASING

20 February 2026 US Monitor Q4 GDP growth likely to print around 2% after poor trade data

• The blowout in the trade deficit and revisions to the inventories numbers point to 2% GDP growth in Q4...
• ...but final sales to private domestic purchasers likely rose by about 21/2%, in line with previous quarters.
• Core PCE inflation likely undershot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4, mostly due to measurement issues.

20 February 2026 LatAm Monitor Activity in Brazil stabilises as easing nears; Peru's fragmented politics

• Activity in Brazil ended 2025 softly, with services weakening and industry hurt by tight conditions…
• …Imminent rate cuts and fiscal support will likely steady growth, though risks remain elevated.
• A chronic lack of stability and voter disaffection cloud elections in Peru, but fundamentals are the key.

20 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor Will she, won't she? Speculation about Ms. Lagarde's future rises

• ECB President Lagarde is rumoured to be stepping down early, to pre-empt a populist successor.
• Horse-trading for the presidency and two other Executive Board seats now begins.
• We doubt an early change in ECB President would drive a big policy shift at the Bank this year.

20 February 2026 UK Monitor Insolvencies will continue to fall as GDP growth accelerates in 2026

• Insolvencies fell year-over-year in January despite months of political chaos causing weaker growth.
• Retail insolvencies have risen, likely as 2025’s payroll-tax and minimum-wage hikes hit the sector hard.
• But overall business failures should drop a little in 2026, as growth recovers and borrowing costs fall.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders / Industrial Production

Less to the recent upturns than initially meets the eye.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, November/December 2025

Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.