Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Japan's inflation slowed in April, but that probably won't dissuade the BoJ from hiking
In one line: Japan's slowing inflation probably won't dissuade the BoJ from hiking rates next month
- In one line: Retail sales remain resilient, but momentum still looks soft.
Indian manufacturing still struggling; pop in prices fading
- In one line: Still losing momentum at the margin.
- In one line: Huge—defensive—hike.
- In one line: Huge—defensive—hike.
- Manufacturing firms appear to be bringing forward orders to get ahead of supply chain disruptions…
- …That will lift industrial activity, but only in the short term; upward pressure on goods prices is building.
- The outlook for homebuilding remains dim; we expect real residential investment to fall in 2026.
- Consumption and fiscal support continue to cushion activity in Brazil, despite high interest rates
- Investment and confidence indicators point to softer domestic demand over the next three-to-six months.
- Persistent inflation pressures will likely keep the COPOM cautious about further easing.
- EZ PMIs sank further in May, adding to the evidence that the economy is stuck in a stagflationary hole.
- The ECB will focus on soaring input and output price indices, but the PMIs are warning not to over-tighten.
- Relative weakness in French PMIs likely reflects the lack of fiscal space to lean against soaring inflation.
- Increased political uncertainty and high energy costs weighed on business sentiment in May.
- But the PMI overreacts to political noise, and price pressures remain strong.
- We stick to our July rate-hike forecast, but it’s a much closer call as downside risks to growth rise.
- In one line: On hold despite April slowdown
In one line: Policy rate cut only likely after several months of flagging growth
Brace for more eye-wateringly strong export growth in Malaysia.
REAL INCOMES WILL DROP THIS SUMMER...
- ...CORE INFLATION WILL COOL IN Q4, ENABLING RATE CUTS
No end in sight for the housing slump.
- Online searches for furniture and household goods are surging, and Redbook’s data look red-hot...
- ...But Bloomberg’s Second Measure data—a better guide to spending—point to an emerging slowdown.
- …That subdued steer is echoed by falling airline pas- senger numbers and weak consumer confidence.
- Brazil — Institutional tensions deepen
- Mexico — Morena facing mounting pressure
- Colombia — Violence reshaping presidential election
- BI surprised almost everyone with a larger-than-expected 50bp rate hike, amid the IDR’s struggles…
- …This increase should be a one-off; pressure on the IDR will ease and the CPI target still looks secure.
- Malaysian export growth hit 37% in April, as the AI boom further boosted electronics exports.
- President Trump’s visit to China achieved no major breakthroughs, but strategic dialogue will continue…
- …Underwhelming business deals were signed, while no decisions were made on extending the trade truce.
- Japan’s Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, but Hormuz risks complicate the BoJ’s rate-hike decision in June.
