Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: UK Budget, November 2025

• In one line: Lower 2026 inflation, but delayed fiscal consolidation lacks credibility and gives the MPC little reason to cut 2-year ahead inflation forecast.

November 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM ECONOMY SLOWS AS DOMESTIC DEMAND SOFTENS

• POLITICAL NOISE AND EXTERNAL UNCERTAINTY DOMINATE

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q3 2025

• In one line: Not worth the paper it’s printed on.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany, November

In one line: Upside risk to German core inflation.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2025

In one line: Q4 will be better.

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, October 2025

In one line: Households' inflation expectations stubbornly above ECB target.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct 2025

In one line: Downside risk to EZ core inflation, relative to our forecast.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, October 2025

In one line: Spanish households' spending spree is coming to an end.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, September 2025

• In one line: The theatre of the absurd is back.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28 November 2025: Tokyo inflation slows slightly

Tokyo inflation slows slightly, with hints of steady wage inflation going into 2026

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Plateauing after strong growth earlier in the year.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 28 November 2025

Ignore the Philippines’ misleading y/y trade headlines

November 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

THAI AND PHILIPPINE GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE COVID

• TAIWAN IS STILL FLYING, BUT THE TURN IN GDP HAS COME

EZ Datanote: ESI, EZ, November 2025

In one line: Another survey suggesting ECB easing is over.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply & ISTAT Business Confidence, EZ/Italy, Oct/Nov 2025

In one line: Consistent with faster EZ GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Decent headline, but mixed details.

November 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

EXPECT AN EXTENDED FED EASING CYCLE...

• ...DRIVEN BY A WEAK LABOR MARKET AND FALLING INFLATION

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, September 2025

Improving slightly, but investment still soft outside of tech.

28 November 2025 China+ Monitor BoK signals end of easing cycle, as it raises growth and inflation outlook

• Bank of Korea remained on hold in November, citing a stronger growth and inflation outlook and a weak KRW. 
• The accompanying statement dropped “easing stance” wording, amid a reduced easing bias on the MPB.
• While staying open to possible cuts, the chance of a January move is lower, likely pushed back to February.

28 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Thursday's data were for ECB hawks; easing is over in the EZ

• The acceleration in money and credit is easing, but both remain a bright spot for the EZ economy. 
• The last set of business surveys for the month round up a month of largely hawkish data. 
• It would take a downside surprise in inflation to push the ECB to cut in December; we doubt it will happen.