Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- The shocks to energy and fertilizer markets mean that food prices will climb through spring and summer…
- …But even a 20% rise in wholesale food prices would only add around 0.1pp to headline CPI inflation.
- The ongoing surge in gas prices is a far bigger and more immediate worry for consumers and the Fed.
- BanRep raised rates last week, as inflation remains persistent and expectations are still de-anchored.
- Institutional tensions between the government and central bank risk undermining BanRep’s credibility.
- Fiscal fragility and external shocks also reinforce the need for a prolonged restrictive stance going forward.
- Indonesia made a host of current spending cuts last week, but we still think a fuel-price hike is likely.
- Real GST growth in India held steady in March, indicating no rapid hit from the war or INR fallout.
- We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Thailand further, to 1.3%, given the latest diesel-price rise.
- China’s 18.9% jump in manufacturing profits in January-to-February was largely due to high-tech sectors.
- Profit growth is likely to be hit by higher oil prices, but the damage should be less severe than in 2022.
- Auto sales should improve from their poor start to the year, but brutal competition is squeezing profits.
- Higher energy prices in March more than offset the disinflationary impact of the strong Swiss franc.
- But a decline in domestic inflation kept the headline rate from rising as much as the consensus expected.
- Headline inflation will rise further this year, as domestic price pressures are building.
- The DMP will be a slight relief to rate-setters, as firms’ medium-term inflation expectations were little moved.
- …But we see few signs of a swift end to the conflict in Iran, so energy prices are likely to remain high.
- So, we think the MPC will have to hike Bank Rate once in 2026, in June, before cutting twice in 2027.
- The rebound in March payrolls was driven by the end of strikes, benign weather and residual seasonality.
- More timely measures of job openings suggest labor demand has weakened since the Iran war began.
- Unemployment dipped as some people looked less actively for work; history points to a swift reversal.
Net trade on track for a big drag on headline GDP growth in Q1.
In one line: Energy shock gives the SNB room to breathe as inflation is set to accelerate further.
In one line: Energy shock gives the SNB room to breathe as inflation is set to accelerate further.
Core goods inflation unlikely to surge
- In one line: Core goods inflation unlikely to surge.
Stronger sales reflect one-time boosts, underlying trend probably still weak
- In one line: A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects.
- In one line: Trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days.
- In one line: Iran war hits most factories hard; price shock immediate and big.
Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects
- In one line: BanRep hikes again, doubling down on credibility.
- In one line: BanRep hikes again, doubling down on credibility.
- In one line: House price inflation has further to drop as the Iran War dents sentiment and boosts borrowing costs.
