Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Philippine GDP growth missed expectations in Q1, slowing to a new post-Covid low of 2.8%, from 3.0%.
- Public spending is reawakening but consumption matters more, and the outlook is still very difficult.
- We’ve lowered our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts to 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively, from 4.8% and 5.2%.
- EZ retail sales fell slightly in March; or did they? We think sales in Germany will be revised higher.
- Factory orders in Germany jumped at the end of Q1, pointing to near-term strength in industrial output.
- The EZ construction PMI sank further in April, but the survey is likely overstating the weakness.
- GDP likely declined in March, with falls across the board in the major activity components.
- We still expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Underlying growth likely held firm in March; a good result given the shock of the Iran war.
Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.
Iran war ’saves’ Thailand from prolonged deflation
Already signs of an inflation squeeze on Philippine sales
Labor demand still trending down, implying March payrolls jump was just a blip.
- Oil consumption has risen despite soaring prices; goods producers are preparing for disruptions.
- Surveys point to a bigger rise in core goods prices than implied by the rise in oil prices alone.
- We still look for a further 75bp easing but we now expect the first cut in December, not September.
- Mexican peso — Resilient rebound as USD softens
- Colombian peso — Rally fades as policy doubts cap gains
- Chilean peso — Partial recovery as external issues ease
- April CPI releases from ASEAN have so far mostly surprised to the upside, barring Indonesia…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 calls for the Philippines and Vietnam to well over 5.0%, but the oil hit is fading.
- Indonesian authorities will now likely be compelled to raise subsidised fuel prices by 5%, at least.
- We doubt that a rapprochement between the US and Iran will get the ECB off the hook next month.
- Wage growth in the EZ remains subdued, but risks are tilting to the upside for next year.
- French industry and Italian retail sales ended Q1 on a solid note; the fall in EZ April PMIs is confirmed.
- We will need to remove a rate hike from our forecast if the peace-plan-related energy-price fall is sustained.
- But the April PMI suggests that firms are already contending with surging inflation pressures…
- ...And resilient growth means that rate-setters must prioritise price pressures over output losses.
In one line: SNB to stand pat through 2026 as the economy faces stagflation.
- In one line: Still losing steam.
Indonesia’s sturdy Q1 GDP is only skin-deep
ASEAN manufacturing continues to lose steam
Another BSP rate hike now seems likely, however misguided
Singapore's March retail sales doesn't look as good as it does under the surface
- US - April data to dash hopes of a labor market turnaround
- EUROZONE - The ECB will hike in June barring a miracle in global energy markets
- UK - A couple of hikes coming this year, but with more of a delay
- CHINA+ - Governor Ueda’s attempt to ‘thread the needle’ leaves currency exposed
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s Q1 GDP growth beats all expectations, hitting 13.7%
- LATAM - COPOM’s cautious second rate cut; Chile on hold as the oil shock hits
- Weak JOLTS job openings in March push back against the theory that labor demand is picking up.
- Soft hiring and low quits signal limited second-round inflation risk after the energy shock.
- Mounting pressures on homebuilders suggest residential construction payrolls will start falling again.
- Mexico’s broad-based decline in growth in Q1 reflects weakening consumption and capex.
- A temporary Q2 rebound driven by the World Cup and seasonal factors will not sustain stronger growth.
- Limited monetary easing and fragile fiscal dynamics constrain policy support; downside risks prevail.
- GDP growth in Indonesia set a new post-Covid high in Q1, rising further to 5.6%, against the consensus.
- But underlying the strong headline is a questionable jump in government spending; austerity incoming.
- We’ve raised our 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%, still expecting a slowdown to sub-5% rates by year-end.
- Swiss inflation jumped in April, and is set to average 1% over the medium term…
- …As second-round effects from higher energy prices will lift domestic inflation sustainably in H2.
- The SNB will remain on the sidelines, since the energy shock is also set to hit growth.
- MPC members argued that tighter financial conditions were doing the job of rate hikes for now.
- The Market Participants Survey in particular appears to have been influential in Governor Bailey’s view.
- But the MaPS suggests the MPC will have to hike this summer to maintain financial conditions.
