Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia
- BI remained on hold for a seventh straight meeting; the consensus, like us, now expects a long pause.
- BI’s attention remains on IDR stability, for now, but the speed of the sell-off so far is manageable.
- We agree with the Bank that the IDR is looking undervalued; it should start to find its feet next year.
- The H2 oil outlook is still largely improving, but normalising food CPI remains the issue in India…
- …Reassuringly, inflation expectations are still subdued, and firms are set to swallow higher costs.
- Taiwanese export growth surprised substantially in March, with electronics still flying.
- In one line: Grim end to an already forgetful Q1; glaring war impact on fertiliser output.
- We were correct about Singapore’s GDP growth moderating sharply in Q1; it fell to 4.6%…
- …The MAS increased the rate of appreciation for its policy band; it is rightly worried about inflation.
- Malaysian GDP growth cooled in Q1, as widely expected, with services slowing sharply.
Malaysian electronic exports are down, just when commodities perk up
- We think GDP growth in Singapore will slow to 3.0% this year, with risks tilted to the downside.
- Singapore has cemented its role as a financial hub in Asia, which has been helped by policy...
- ...But further expansion could be limited if Hong Kong manages to lure back banks and workers.
- In one line: Not as bad as we all thought.
RBI is keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause
- The RBI stayed on hold, as expected, while its new CPI outlook already looks dated, post-ceasefire…
- …A smaller diesel-price hike is now likely, and food gains have peaked; we see 2026 CPI at 3.7%.
- Taiwan’s inflation fell more than expected in March; the CBC‘s red line looks secure, for now.
- In one line: The bigger jolt will come in April.
Oil surge leads to an immediate breach of the BSP’s target range
Recovering domestic demand will soon hit a brick wall
- GDP growth in Vietnam cooled just a tad in Q1, to 8.0% from 8.3%, if stripping out residual seasonality.
- We still see full-year 2026 growth moderating to 7.5%; high export base effects are now in the frame.
- This oil shock is looking worse for Vietnam than the one in 2022; we’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to 4.8%.
- Indonesia made a host of current spending cuts last week, but we still think a fuel-price hike is likely.
- Real GST growth in India held steady in March, indicating no rapid hit from the war or INR fallout.
- We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Thailand further, to 1.3%, given the latest diesel-price rise.
Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects
- Stagflationary signs were seen in ASEAN’s PMI, as in India, but inflation is a bigger worry for the former.
- Indonesia’s soft March CPI is a big misdirect; we now see an eventual fuel price hike of 5% this year…
- …February’s export print was a let-down, but should mark the year’s low, as commodities will soon help.
- In one line: Underlying spending growth was still in recovery mode pre-Iran war.
- India’s Feb. IP validates our above-consensus call, but the post-GST pop in consumer goods is done…
- …Output looks poised to hit a wall in March; last week’s fuel-tax cuts buy consumers time, not relief.
- Thai consumption was having a decent Q1 pre-war, amid an easing in structural high-debt headwinds.
- In one line: Likely as good as we’ll get in H1, if not 2026 at large.
Two-way trade in the Philippines was picking up steam before the war
- The INR fell below the symbolic 94 level versus USD last week; the threat is to growth, not so much CPI.
- The BSP held at its off-cycle meeting last Thursday, while likely inadvertently setting a high bar for hikes.
- The global energy shock is hitting inflation harder in Thailand; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 0.9%.
