Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese CPI rose to 1.8% in February, but it’s just Lunar New Year noise; a bigger issue is at hand...
- … A likely increase in fuel prices will hit Q2 inflation, though we still expect no rate hike.
- Tet noise means that Vietnam’s ‘ weak’ February exports should be ignored; the hot CPI less so.
- In one line: Spending on big items is failing to recover.
- In one line: Diesel fix still more than safe; shading our 2026 forecast.
- In one line: Members hold rates, but seem spooked by the Middle East crisis.
Don’t read too much into the Lunar New Year noise in Singapore’s January sales
Returning food inflation drives Philippine inflation up higher; BSP target still safe
- BNM held rates at 2.75%, as expected, but its statement carried an unusually cautious tone.
- Singapore’s January retail sales were weaker than expected, but highly distorted by Lunar New Year.
- We raise our 2026 CPI call for the Philippines and cut that on Thailand; the difference is fuel policy.
Rising domestic and external demand lifting most boats in ASEAN
- We see no need yet to rethink our India CPI and rate calls, as fuel prices are already unnaturally high…
- …The clearer threat to CPI this year is the slowdown in agri growth; we see February inflation at 3.2%.
- The pre-Iran-war oil-price gains had barely any impact on industry in India and ASEAN.
- In one line: An understandable, and likely temporary, breather to start 2026.
- Indonesian exports fell well short of expectations in January, with the commodities lift still subdued…
- …But this should change in H2, with prices set to lift growth above 10%, helping to rebuild the surplus.
- The breach of BI’s CPI target range in February is skin-deep, but we’ve upped our 2026 call to 2.7%.
No post-Ukraine-war like burst, yet, to expect from export growth
Underlying price pressures rising, but feel free to ignore the breach of BI’s range
- In one line: New series paints a more stable picture of recent years; ’statistical discrepancies’ no longer a bug-bear.
- In one line: Household momentum is rebuilding, but still nowhere near as fast as this absurd headline suggests.
Ignore the y/y misses; lots to be reassured about in the Philippine trade details
THAI BALLOT AND HOT Q4 GDP NO SILVER BULLET
- …INDIA’S 2026/27 BUDGET KICKS THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD
- GDP growth in India cooled modestly to 7.8% in Q4, from 8.4% in Q3, based on the revamped series…
- …‘Statistical discrepancies’ are now much less of a headache; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 6.7%.
- The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling is a clear win for EM Asia; risks to export growth, in all, are receding.
- In one line: Members say “why wait” via a surprise cut.
- The BoT surprised almost all forecasters, including us, with an extra 25bp cut to its policy rate to 1.00%.
- At the same time, though, it has conceded the battle against structurally subdued GDP growth…
- …We still believe that 1.00% will mark the terminal rate, but more CPI misses could force another cut.
- Malaysian exports continue to defy expectations, soaring by 19.6% in January, due to the AI boom…
- …CPI inflation remains elevated, but only because of a sewerage cost increase that affected housing.
- Singaporean core inflation showed a surprise seasonally adjusted month-to-month decline.
- Booming Korean exports in the first 20 days of February are mainly a semiconductor story…
- …Chip exports skyrocketed almost 180% thanks to rising prices and volumes.
- The BoK is likely to hold rates on Friday, despite soft activity outside the tech sector.
