Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia
- Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
- ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
- But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.
- Thai customs exports easily beat expectations in December, with growth returning to double digits…
- …Soaring US demand is getting more help from the DM world, while shipments elsewhere are lagging.
- On balance, it looks like net trade will hit Q4 GDP hard, especially with imports bouncing strongly.
- In one line: Can’t catch a break.
- In one line: Exports end 2025 with a bang; those to the US continue to defy gravity.
India showing no care to the US-led geopolitical noise
- India’s flash PMIs for January saw a big bounce in both headlines; no trend-change yet, though…
- …Their early Q1 signal points to sub-7.0% GDP growth, and we think it will fall more in Q2 and Q3.
- Our final call for Taiwan’s Q4 GDP print is 12.3%, much higher than the 8.4% consensus.
- BNM held the OPR at 2.75% yesterday, in line with expectations, prolonging its ongoing pause.
- For now, AI-driven export strength should continue, meaning no rate cuts in 2026.
- Subdued inflation should leave the door open to a rate cut in the event of an economic shock.
- In one line: Another no-move meeting, with optimism building.
- In one line: Just about enough to salvage Q4.
- Bank Indonesia remained on hold yesterday, a position we expect to continue for all of 2026…
- …Worries over BI’s independence seem overblown; note its sovereign debt holding is no longer rising.
- Core IP in India firmed up more in December, but Q4 on the whole, and the details are uninspiring.
- Malaysian exports blew past expectations in December; analysts underestimated the AI boom...
- …We have upgraded our 2026 GDP forecast, as we think AI demand will remain firm for some time.
- Malaysia’s inflation ticked up in December, but we consider this a one-off not a re-acceleration.
AI boom saves Malaysian exports
Malaysian inflation shows a surprise rise
- Malaysia’s Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.7%, largely because of export manufacturing...
- …This bolsters our call for the BNM to hold rates this Thursday, saving policy space for later.
- We think economic growth should be stronger in 2026, but this is contingent on the AI boom.
- In one line: Their latest slip aside, exports to the US are seeing some consolidation.
More confirmation that food price pressures are coming back in India
- Conservatives within Vietnam’s ruling party look to be reasserting themselves ahead of the Congress…
- …The big U-turn on the annual credit quota suggests to us that 2026 will see one rate hike.
- Thailand’s opposition PP looks poised to win in February, but acute political uncertainty will linger.
- Food deflation in India is receding quickly, pushing headline inflation up further, to 1.3% in December…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 average forecast to 4.1%, but underlying inflation remains very benign.
- Indonesian retail sales growth has hit a 20-month high, despite the big holes in discretionary goods.
Recovering sales growth in Indonesia hiding big holes under the surface
- In one line: Export growth eases, but Q4 GDP remains on track for a millennia-high.
Sales growth in Malaysia dips
