Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
- ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
- ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Higher rates and tighter lending standards are depressing credit and constraining spending…
- …But the hit is modest, so far, and the deterioration in credit quality is not yet alarming.
- Initial jobless claims are wild around Thanksgiving, but look for a further increase in continuing claims.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- China’s services PMIs diverged in November, but this is probably a blip in a cooling trend this year.
- The graduate jobs market is likely still weak, if slightly better than last year.
- Consumer confidence has waned since the initial reopening surge in Q1.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Brazilian Real — Fundamentals supportive
- Mexican Peso — All good here, at least in the near term
- Argentinian Peso — Milei’s moment is here
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Italian GDP increased in Q3 rather than flat-lined, as the advance release had suggested...
- ...It is still more likely to fall than rise in Q4, and we are lowering our forecasts for H1 2024.
- BTPs are rallying, and we look for further gains; we see yields falling to just over 3% by mid 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Employee numbers likely were broadly unchanged month-to-month in November.
- PAYE figures and ONS survey data point to a further loss of upward momentum in wages in October...
- ...But rises in the Real Living Wage and public- sector pay likely supported growth temporarily
Samuel TombsUK
- Tokyo consumer inflation fell 0.6pp to 2.6% year- over-year in November...
- ...And core inflation excluding fresh food dipped to 2.3%, close to the BoJ’s 2% target.
- The downward revision to Japan’s final services PMI indicates slowing growth, despite robust tourism.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- India’s PMIs combined, are the softest they’ve been in a year, pointing clearly to a GDP payback in Q4.
- Food inflation in the Philippines is reversing, but don’t forget about entrenched core disinflation.
- Singaporean retail sales growth has fallen to an eight-month low, but fundamentals remain strong.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Brazil’s economy dodged a contraction in Q3, despite the drag from rising real interest rates.
- Solid private consumption, for now, and resilient exports are overshadowing the capex recession.
- The outlook is deteriorating, as rates continue to stifle economic activity, but 2024 will be better.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The composite PMI topped 50 in November for the first time since July and is likely understating GDP growth.
- S&P’s bespoke seasonal adjustment process is depressing the PMI; public-sector output will rise in Q4.
- S&P’s survey also signals slowing service price rises and flat employment; a May Bank Rate cut is still in play.
UK
- An ECB pivot is underway; it will be confirmed at next week’s policy meeting, and by the new forecasts.
- The January HICP report and wage data remain risks to our call for a first rate cut in March.
- Early data from France and Spain suggest euro area manufacturing slowed further at the start of Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The quits rate fell much further than implied by the drop in unemployment during the Great Rehiring…
- …It correctly signalled that wage gains would rocket, but now it tells the opposite story.
- ISM services has tracked sideways in recent months, net; the pattern likely continued in November.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Swiss inflation fell in November and has now been in line with the SNB’s target for six months...
- ...It will likely slide further in H1 next year, after a probable small base-effects driven rise in December.
- Coupled with weak growth, the stars should align for the SNB to start cutting its key rate by March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Redundancy notifications jumped in mid-November; the rise isn’t just due to one big business failure.
- Both the Adzuna and Indeed measures of job vacan- cies also have fallen during the fourth quarter.
- Some measures of employment intentions are robust, but job hoarding might ease as unemployment rises.
Samuel TombsUK
- Core PCE inflation is fading rapidly; in recent months it has run only just above 2% on a sequential basis.
- Consumption spending slowed at the start of Q4, but likely is on course to rise at a 2%-plus rate.
- Look for only a modest bounce in the ISM manufacturing index, despite the leap in the Chicago PMI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s unemployment fell in October to recent cyclical lows, but the good news won’t continue.
- Mexico’s job market remains resilient, buoying Banxico’s hawks, but the current strength can’t last.
- In Chile and Colombia, the job market also looks solid, but this is a lagging indicator; it will slow soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in India slowed trivially in Q3, to 7.6%, but the flattery of discrepancies remains absurd.
- The drop in consumption growth is no one-off; finances are weakening and the credit binge is over.
- The impact of tightening is surfacing more clearly in M3, with cash growth down and deposit growth up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s November manufacturing PMI was hit by fading demand, while output continues to rise.
- But the weakness is mainly in materials processing, despite rising construction activity...
- ...Domestic demand for equipment and high-tech manufacturing is growing.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EZ inflation fell sharply in November, widening the gap between the reality and the ECB’s forecasts.
- January HICP is key for the 2024 inflation outlook; we look for a return to normal in m/m pricing.
- The ECB’s hawkish facade will soon crack; look out for a shift in messaging at the December meeting.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The latest data add weight to our view that a recession will be avoided and Bank Rate will start to fall from Q2.
- GDP looks set to increase by 0.3% q/q in Q4, with a recovery in real incomes driving household spending.
- The Autumn Statement has done little to change our forecasts, we still expect fiscal consolidation in 2024/25.
Samuel TombsUK
