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29th Nov 2023 21:16UKDaily Monitor

  • The latest data add weight to our view that a recession will be avoided and Bank Rate will start to fall from Q2.
  • GDP looks set to increase by 0.3% q/q in Q4, with a recovery in real incomes driving household spending.
  • The Autumn Statement has done little to change our forecasts, we still expect fiscal consolidation in 2024/25.

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Keywords for: 1 December 2023 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence