Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Growth momentum is fading in Chile as temporary drivers wane and consumption stabilises.
- Industrial production is still strong, led by mining, but job-market weakness remains a threat.
- Political polarisation and election uncertainty are rising, posing new risks to policy and capex.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
- Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
- Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Caixin PMI rebounded more strongly than the official manufacturing index in June…
- …Deflation pressures are festering, however, likely forcing regulatory curbs on excessive competition.
- Korea’s manufacturing PMI is starting to rise from its sickbed, now the election has reduced political risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Headline inflation edged up to the ECB’s 2% target in June, as energy deflation unwound a touch.
- Lower energy and core inflation will pull the rate down to 1.8% in July, where it will stay in August.
- This further drop in inflation over the summer should be enough for a 25bp rate cut in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
- Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
- Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: In line with our call for slightly softer German inflation in June.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ money and credit data still positive on economic outlook.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The abundance of weak surveys points to a 100K first estimate for June payrolls.
- Downward revisions to estimated payrolls in April and May also are likely.
- Scraps of evidence suggest late responses from struggling small businesses explains the pattern.
Samuel TombsUS
- Deep BanRep Board divisions and sticky inflation expectations are delaying further rate cuts.
- Rising fiscal deficits and political noise are under- mining policy credibility and investor confidence.
- Stronger growth gives limited relief as inflation risks and external pressures continue to build.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
- …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
- Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PBoC on Friday hinted it saw less need for a near- term monetary policy boost than three months ago.
- The June official manufacturing PMI improved, thanks to policy support and an easing in tariff tensions.
- The construction PMI ticked up at last, but it’s too soon to celebrate; the hard data pointed to slowing.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Total HICP inflation prints for the Big Four suggest EZ headline inflation edged up to 2.0% in June.
- The ECB strategy review suggests the central bank is doing the right thing with the right tools; go figure!
- Money data still point to upside risks to GDP, but don’t capture what is happening in net trade.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- An upward revision to Q1 consumer spending growth gives a more solid base to economic growth.
- The household saving rate dip in Q1 is a sign of things to come, which should support consumer spending.
- Firms are borrowing again as all the “Liberation Day” surge in economic policy uncertainty has unwound.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Manufacturing activity index rises thanks to eased tariff tensions and domestic policy support
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
China's Official PMIs point to improving manufacturing and construction activity, but weak jobs market
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
