- The COPOM signalled a pause to rate hikes amid persistent inflation and emerging economic cooling.
- Balanced inflation risks and global uncertainty drive the BCB’s flexible, data-dependent approach.
- We see the end of the tightening cycle, with potential rate cuts delayed until late Q4 or early 2026.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in the Philippines inched up in Q1, to 5.4%, but a big import bounce is to blame…
- …Activity broadly improved, especially government spending, though the Q1 bump should be a one-off.
- Consumption should improve this year due to low inflation, while capex still faces many headwinds.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The MPC shifted dovishly yesterday, cutting growth and inflation forecasts due to heightened uncertainty.
- But rate-setters disappointed the market, which had seen a chance of “gradual” guidance being ditched.
- We still look for two more rate cuts this year, but now in August—versus June previously—and November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, but downside risks prevail.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Rise in demand in Germany pulls up headline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
An overdue—and big—m/m correction in Philippine sales to close Q1
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Back-to-back rate cuts are likely as sentiment collapses, but accelerating inflation will keep MPC guidance cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Car registrations tank as duties increase.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazilian Real — Stability tested as external risks mount
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief, but…
- Chilean Peso — Buoyed by copper and strong real data
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI plunged to a new post-Covid low in the wake of “Liberation Day”…
- …But it looks like China’s struggles are more pressing, for now, and it’s best to wait for hard IP data.
- We’ve slashed our 2025 average inflation forecast for the Philippines to just 1.8%, from 2.5%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The EZ construction PMI rose in April, on the back of a recovery in new orders in Germany.
- Construction activity is still faring better in Italy than in Germany or France.
- The sector is likely to support EZ GDP in Q2, as it seems to have done in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
- ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response.
- We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, matching the MPC’s February forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility price hike, a massive water-bill increase, tax hikes and indexed prices drive the rise.
- Inflation will likely stay above 3% until January, despite recent falls in oil and natural gas prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US looks to have hit a ceiling
A quiet start to Q2 for retail sales in Vietnam, following a robust Q1
Lots of moving parts, but April saw no change to Vietnamese inflation
Below-target-range inflation in the Philippines looks set to persist until year-end
This bout of Thai deflation should be short and shallow
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Caixin services PMI points to business jitters over tariff worries
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- US - Uncertainty over tariffs hasn’t killed jobs yet, but their imposition will hurt
- EUROZONE - Soft headline inflation will pave the way for a 1.75% depo-rate by July
- UK - MPC preview: all about the likely new downside scenario
- CHINA+ - US and China edge closer to trade talks after back-channel signals
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s GDP gets a boost from “Liberation Day” tariff chaos
- LATAM - Mexico narrowly escapes recession, but the outlook is far from rosy
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
