Pantheon Publications

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, May

• In one line: No material change—yet—to the outlook for continued fuel & power deflation.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 13 June 2025

March pop in Indonesian sales evaporates completely, as expected

16 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian retail sales remain weak, but high debt is no major worry

• Malaysian retail sales moderated in April; we are worried about its failure to reach pre-Covid levels.
• Debt is high, but this shouldn’t risk the outlook for long-term sales, as most of it is secured borrowing.
• Indonesian sales faltered in April; the mini-stimulus won’t help, especially with confidence tanking.

Global Datanote: CPI, India, May

• In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.

13 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright food deflation in India is imminent; 2025 consensus too high

• Indian inflation dropped to its lowest level in over six years in May, coming in below expectations at 2.8%.
• Food disinflation is still the overriding story, and our daily tracker points to outright deflation here soon.
• We’ve cut our 2025 forecast to 2.8%, but raised our 2026 call to 5.0%, with this year’s base so low.

10 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's exports experience yet another month of front-loading

• Taiwan’s exports surprised in May, rising 38.6%, up from 29.9% in April; the front-loading continues…
• …This will likely mean the central bank holds back on easing when it meets next week.
• Thai deflation likely hit a low in May, but the strengthening THB could lead to its return next year.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, May

• In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: Front-loading most of this year’s remaining cuts.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 June 2025

The RBI front-loads most of this year’s remaining cuts
Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US continues apace
Latest electricity-price hike nudges Vietnamese inflation up a touch
Vietnamese retail sales are having a torrid Q2
The resurgence in Philippine sales is topping out

9 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's surprise front-loading of cuts doesn't mark the finish line

• The RBI surprised with a larger 50bp cut to the repo rate, to 5.50%, but hardened its stance to “neutral”.
• We still expect one more 25bp cut, in October, with the MPC underestimating the “space” it has left.
• Ignore Vietnam’s smaller trade surplus in May; the front-loading of exports to the US continues apace.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 June 2025

All clear for another BSP cut this month

6 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwanese inflation finally below 2%, due to easing cost-push factors

• Taiwan’s CPI moderated sharply to 1.6% in May, due to food, transport and “Liberation Day”.
• Philippine CPI fell to a 5.5-year low in May, but this should be the nadir, as food CPI will soon creep up.
• Indonesia’s U-turn on electricity discounts has compelled us to raise our 2025 CPI call to 1.8%.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, May

• In one line: A bounce of sorts, but manufacturing is still shaky.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 June 2025

A bounce of sorts, but ASEAN manufacturing is still shaky

5 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor ASEAN manufacturing barely improving in May

• ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI bounced post-“Liberation Day ” but was still below 50 in May, at 49.2…
• …The region’s outperformers—Singapore and the Philippines—lost steam, giving a smaller cushion.
• Forward-looking indicators continue to sour, but at least inflation pressures are receding still.

3 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor The bad and the good of Indonesia's shrinking trade surplus

• The dramatic collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in April was down in large part to seasonal noise…
• …Underlying the emerging down-shift are struggling exports and a welcome recovery in imports.
• We have cut our 2025 CPI forecast to 1.5%, in view of the soft May data and the coming utilities relief.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, May

• In one line: Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, April

• In one line: A partially welcome collapse in the surplus.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 June 2025

A partially welcome collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q1

• In one line: Boosted by investment, which can’t be relied upon post-“Liberation Day”.