Import bounce hits Thailand's Q4 hard, but this is no reflection of healthy domestic demand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Still waiting on Indonesian retail sales to show any real signs of life
Singaporean export growth leaps in Janaury, but any celebration would be premature
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth surged in January, but this just sets the stage for a correction in February.
- Indonesian retail sales showed no real pulse in 2023, and negative growth is a real threat for H1.
- The BSP remained on hold last week, but rapidly falling inflation has led to a notable change in tone.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Lumpy non-oil imports continue to sag.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: It won’t be long before cuts enter the fray.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: It won’t be long before cuts enter the fray.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Prabowo Subianto looks to have won by a landslide in Indonesia, removing the need for a run-off.
- The trade surplus fell sharply in January; its support for the rupiah will be a lot less robust in 2024.
- The recovery in export growth is stumbling, with commodities lifeless and China still weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The easing in upstream core deflation has come to a halt.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian IP stuttered at the end of last year, implying no repeat in Q4 GDP of manufacturing’s heroics.
- The RAI’s retail sales data remain weak, pointing to a continuation of below-par consumption growth.
- We’ll be raising our Q4 GDP growth forecast to about 5.5%, still well below the 6%-plus consensus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’ve raised our 2024 average CPI forecast in India to 4.2%, in the wake of January’s upside surprise.
- Crucially, the core rate is still falling, showing the headline the way down, as food inflation wanes...
- ...We see no clash between falling core and ‘brisk’ GDP; RBI surveys back our suspicion of the latter.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still waiting on the onion price correction to show in CPI; the trend in IP growth is clearly one of moderation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Still waiting on the onion price correction to show in CPI; the trend in IP growth is clearly one of moderation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean retail sales growth appears healthier than it actually is, due to the higher COE quota.
- Slowing wage growth in Malaysia will likely take its toll on consumer spending in late H1.
- The nascent turnaround in Philippine demand is just about intact, thanks to a resilient job market.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Cracks are emerging in the MPC’s unity.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Cracks are emerging in the RBI’s unity
Discretionary spending over the holidays boosts Malaysian sales growth in December
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI’s MPC voted 5-to-1 to keep the repo rate at 6.50%, but Mr. Varma’s dissent is no real surprise.
- We still expect a Q2 cut; Q4 GDP likely will fall short of the MPC’s forecast and 4% inflation is imminent.
- The BoT stood pat on Wednesday, as expected, but telegraphed a big cut to its 2024 growth forecast.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Holding steady, just to prove a point.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Holding steady, just to prove a point.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
