- Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
- …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
- Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
- …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
- We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
US tariff themes aplenty in Thailand’s Q2; expect a faster slowdown in H2
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
- …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
- We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s exports defied expectations in July, rising 42.0% after June’s already-high 33.7% growth.
- Consensus should have it just right for India’s July CPI; early-August data suggest this was the low.
- This week’s BoT meeting is ‘live’; we think the Bank will hold fire in spite of the majority view for a cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The Philippines’ Q2 GDP was a skin-deep, consensus-beating print
Sales numbers show worsening momentum heading into Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ Q2 GDP beat expectations slightly, with yearly growth ticking up to 5.5% from 5.4%…
- …But this was down largely to a misleading U-turn in net exports, masking a weakening domestically.
- We reiterate our below-consensus 5.3% forecast for 2025, implying a renewed slowdown in H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Holding—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The RBI holds—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down
An initial sign that the front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US is over
A decent start to Q3 for still-depressed Vietnamese retail sales
Transport deflation re-steepens in Vietnam; it's here to stay, for now
June leap in Thai food inflation reverses completely
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI stood pat this month, commendably in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
- Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
- Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Big investment rebound drives Indonesia’s Q2 upside surprise
July should mark the low for Philippine inflation, but short-term downside risks dominate
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
- …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
- The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Discount the base effects lifting food inflation; the headline should now stabilise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Export growth is in for a weaker H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI returned to the black in July, just, for the first time since “Liberation Day ”…
- …But leading indicators remain bleak; the US’s ‘final’ tariffs are at least broadly a win for EM Asia.
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore paused and set a high bar for more easing in the short run.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine trade was flattered hugely by base effects in June
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
BI CUTS IN JULY; NEW BOT CHIEF TO RESTART EASING
- …EARLY Q2 GDP RESULTS ALL SEE UPSIDE SURPRISES
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
