Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
Indian manufacturing still struggling; pop in prices fading
- In one line: Still losing momentum at the margin.
- In one line: Huge—defensive—hike.
- In one line: Huge—defensive—hike.
- BI surprised almost everyone with a larger-than-expected 50bp rate hike, amid the IDR’s struggles…
- …This increase should be a one-off; pressure on the IDR will ease and the CPI target still looks secure.
- Malaysian export growth hit 37% in April, as the AI boom further boosted electronics exports.
- GDP growth in Thailand rose unexpectedly in Q1, to 2.8%, but inventories hid a broad domestic easing…
- …We maintain our 2.2% growth forecast for 2026, implying a sustained slowdown to 1.0% by Q4.
- India’s scorching WPI print was no surprise to us, and we find much comfort in still-tepid WPI food.
Thai growth sees a natural payback from the interim government pop
Analysts were also too gloomy on Singapore exports
- In one line: Some reassuring developments, but take the y/y leaps with a pinch of salt.
- In one line: Hot, thanks to the naturally delayed oil boost.
- Headline inflation in India was much softer than expected in April, merely inching up to 3.5%...
- ...Low food-price base effects were the sole reason; our daily food tracker points to a big reversal in May.
- We’ve cut our 2026 average inflation forecast to 3.4%, even if diesel prices are raised by up to 8%.
- In one line: Food price pressures at the margin are collapsing.
- In one line: Food price pressures at the margin are collapsing.
Sales growth is souring in Indonesia, for a handful of reasons
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia slowed in March, but Q1 overall was the best quarter in two years.
- The historically tight job market is finally reviving wage growth, but cracks are surfacing in the former.
- Income-used data continue to show rising caution, with the share for savings now above average.
- Taiwan’s export growth finally moderated in April, to 39%; adverse base effects have kicked in…
- …Q2 will also be plague d by the supply-side constraints that are showing up in the PMIs.
- BNM held the OPR at 2.75%; the Bank has little reason to panic when core inflation remains benign.
The main reason why the BSP should be reluctant to hike further
- Philippine GDP growth missed expectations in Q1, slowing to a new post-Covid low of 2.8%, from 3.0%.
- Public spending is reawakening but consumption matters more, and the outlook is still very difficult.
- We’ve lowered our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts to 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively, from 4.8% and 5.2%.
Iran war ’saves’ Thailand from prolonged deflation
Already signs of an inflation squeeze on Philippine sales
- April CPI releases from ASEAN have so far mostly surprised to the upside, barring Indonesia…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 calls for the Philippines and Vietnam to well over 5.0%, but the oil hit is fading.
- Indonesian authorities will now likely be compelled to raise subsidised fuel prices by 5%, at least.
- In one line: Still losing steam.
