Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 May 2026

Indonesia’s sturdy Q1 GDP is only skin-deep
ASEAN manufacturing continues to lose steam
Another BSP rate hike now seems likely, however misguided
Singapore's March retail sales doesn't look as good as it does under the surface

6 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Dubious leap in public spending behind Indonesia's Q1 GDP beat

• GDP growth in Indonesia set a new post-Covid high in Q1, rising further to 5.6%, against the consensus.
• But underlying the strong headline is a questionable jump in government spending; austerity incoming.
• We’ve raised our 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%, still expecting a slowdown to sub-5% rates by year-end.

5 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Heat map check: war hitting India fast; big exporters mostly unfazed

• Our heat maps show only India is feeling the war’s pinch, highlighting its Middle East exposure…
• …By contrast, the main exporters are still going strong; no signs yet of the chip boom losing steam.
• The RBI’s surveys show Indian consumer sentiment is already wobbling even without fuel-price rises.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Initial signs of a squeeze from the war fallout.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 April 2026

A broadly constructive deterioration of the Philippines' trade balance in Q1

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision, April 2026

• In one line: The war has been ‘good’ for the MPC’s policy space.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision, April 2026

• In one line: The war has been ‘good’ for the MPC’s policy space.

April 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

EARLY Q1 GDP NUMBERS SHOW A GENERAL COOLING

• …BSP AND MAS TIGHTEN IN VIEW OF CPI RISKS

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March 2026

• In one line: Decent, but positive momentum is fading.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March 2026

• In one line: Decent, but positive momentum is fading.

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, March 2026

• In one line: A solid end to Q1 for two-way trade, but fundamental pressure on the THB is building.

27 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor THB needed a correction, but its fundamentals are weakening

• THB strength is no longer a ‘good headache’ for policymakers, but its wobble is no mere correction…
• …We still see a current-account deficit this year, but now at -1%; export leading indicators are tanking.
• A painful war punch to Indian exports; we expect net trade to impose a bigger 1.8pp hit on Q1 GDP.

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, April 2026

• In one line: An insurance hike; most probably a “one and done”.

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, April 2026

• In one line: An insurance hike; most probably a “one and done”.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 April 2026

Indian PMIs rebounding on the back of the fragile ceasefire

24 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor We think that the BSP's insurance hike will be 'one and done'

• In what was a coin-toss meeting, the BSP tightened the target reverse repo rate by 25bp to 4.50%…
• …It raised its CPI forecast to above 4% for 2027; we doubt inflation will be this bad or persistent.
• India’s PMIs rebounded partially in April from the March shock, but the broad trend is still weak.

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, April 2026

• In one line: Another month, another hold, as global assumptions are downgraded further.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, April 2026

• In one line: Another month, another hold, as global assumptions are downgraded further.

23 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's IDR worries are skin-deep; it's right to expect some retracement

• BI remained on hold for a seventh straight meeting; the consensus, like us, now expects a long pause.
• BI’s attention remains on IDR stability, for now, but the speed of the sell-off so far is manageable. 
• We agree with the Bank that the IDR is looking undervalued; it should start to find its feet next year.

22 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI surveys show no material and immediate threat to underlying CPI

• The H2 oil outlook is still largely improving, but normalising food CPI remains the issue in India…
• …Reassuringly, inflation expectations are still subdued, and firms are set to swallow higher costs.
• Taiwanese export growth surprised substantially in March, with electronics still flying.