Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.
Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.
In one line: Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.
In one line: Down but still one for the ECB hawks.
In one line: Down but still one for the ECB hawks.
- The NFIB survey’s hiring intentions index increased in November to its highest level since May 2023...
- ...But first estimates of private payrolls have undershot its implied level by 50K on average since Q1.
- The regional Fed surveys and the Census Bureau’s biweekly business survey show weaker hiring plans.
- Brazil — Polarised political outlook
- Colombia — Markets brace for next year's election
- Peru — Stability but with political fragility
- BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
- …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
- The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.
- EZ inflation is now thought to have held steady in November, rather than edged up.
- It has still averaged above the ECB’s forecast so far in Q4; the Bank will stand pat today.
- Our forecasts show EZ inflation rising in December before falling to a trough of 1.7% in Q1.
- An MPC interest rate cut today is beyond doubt after inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 20bp.
- We add an April rate cut to our forecast too, although that is a finely balanced call still…
- ...Because underlying inflation pressure remains much firmer than the headline inflation drop suggests.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
In one line: Q4 will still be better than Q3.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
In one line: Q4 will still be better than Q3.
In one line: Reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
Japan's flash PMIs find reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
An anticlimactic end for India’s PMIs to 2025
Q3 SHOULD BE THE PEAK IN INDIA’S ABSURD GDP DATA
- …TAIWANESE EXPORTS SHOWING NO SIGN OF PAUSING
- US - Lackluster payrolls, but not alarming enough for a January easing
- EUROZONE - ECB preview: EZ policy rates to stay on hold all the way until 2027
- UK - CPI preview 2: headline falling to 3.5%, but services up to 4.7%
- CHINA+ - China’s domestic demand still in the slow lane as policy boost fades
- EM ASIA - “End” to BSP’s easing will come when rates fall to 4.25%
- LATAM - Kast’s mandate signals Chile’s return to discipline, and market confidence
