Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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JANUARY PAYROLLS ARE JUST A FLASH IN THE PAN...
- ...SLOW JOB GAINS & LOWER INFLATION WILL SPUR EASING
- The blowout in the trade deficit and revisions to the inventories numbers point to 2% GDP growth in Q4...
- ...but final sales to private domestic purchasers likely rose by about 21/2%, in line with previous quarters.
- Core PCE inflation likely undershot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4, mostly due to measurement issues.
- Activity in Brazil ended 2025 softly, with services weakening and industry hurt by tight conditions…
- …Imminent rate cuts and fiscal support will likely steady growth, though risks remain elevated.
- A chronic lack of stability and voter disaffection cloud elections in Peru, but fundamentals are the key.
- ECB President Lagarde is rumoured to be stepping down early, to pre-empt a populist successor.
- Horse-trading for the presidency and two other Executive Board seats now begins.
- We doubt an early change in ECB President would drive a big policy shift at the Bank this year.
- Insolvencies fell year-over-year in January despite months of political chaos causing weaker growth.
- Retail insolvencies have risen, likely as 2025’s payroll-tax and minimum-wage hikes hit the sector hard.
- But overall business failures should drop a little in 2026, as growth recovers and borrowing costs fall.
Less to the recent upturns than initially meets the eye.
Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.
- In one line: Inflation miss too small to stop a March rate cut, but stubborn services inflation means a second cut this year is far from certain.
- In one line: The housing market was resilient in 2025, but prices will rise more quickly in 2026.
In one line: Fall in electricity prices offset by higher prices at the petrol pump.
The outlook for homebuilders remains tough.
- The recent stabilization in building permits probably will be short-lived, given the inventory overhang…
- …Residential construction spending and employment look set to remain under pressure.
- Rising industrial production is mostly due to AI and aircraft demand, not an emerging tariff boost.
- China’s growth will slow as it matures, with speed giving way to stability and structural adjustment.
- Property remains a drag, with sustained producer and consumer reflation unlikely until the market troughs.
- The PBoC is promoting a stronger RMB, while the temporary US trade truce masks a power rivalry.
- Inflation in France fell sharply in January, but is now poised for a rebound as energy inflation rises.
- Consumer electricity prices in France are set to become much more volatile after the regulation shift.
- Core inflation in France should hold around 1% for most of 2026, before rising to 1.5% by December.
- Energy, education, food, rents and airfares cut inflation to 3.0% in January, and further falls are likely.
- But services inflation exceeded the MPC’s forecast by 30bp, and underlying inflation accelerated.
- A March rate cut remains highly likely despite the inflation miss, as rate-setters focus on unemployment.
In one line: Falls short of consensus’ expectations, but morale still high.
- In one line: Consumers’ spending will boost January GDP growth.
- In one line: Momentum is building in the housing market.
- In one line: The trade deficit has some room to further improve.
- In one line:Disappointing Q4 keeps a March rate cut on track, but underlying momentum looks too solid for more than one rate cut this year.
