Pantheon Publications

15 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Political setback in Buenos Aires rattles confidence and amplifies macro risks

• Markets reeled as political setback exposed fragility in Argentina’s macro backdrop and reform credibility.
• Inflation is slowing, but ARS pressure, weak activity, and tight reserves complicate policy execution.
• October elections will test Milei’s mandate and determine the durability of his economic program.

15 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor EM Asia laggards won't chip away at the Asian Tigers' chip dominance

• Emerging Asian countries have announced national strategies to enter the semiconductor market.
• We think they will be unlikely to gain a meaningful foothold in manufacturing semiconductors.
• If they play to their strengths, however, they could attract capital to other parts of the supply chain.

15 September 2025 China+ Monitor China's dull credit growth points to still sluggish investment

• China’s broad credit growth slowed slightly in August, with seemingly dull private sector credit demand.
• Rising M1 growth is a probably a sign of funds returning from the bond market.
• No smoking gun yet in terms of fund leakage into the stock market via unofficial channels.

15 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Closer to an estimate for the Q1 2026 fall in German energy prices

• Fiscal easing to reduce energy prices will lower German inflation by 0.4-to-0.5pp in January.
• Eurozone employment growth eased in Q2, continuing the downward trend since 2022…
• …Hiring is falling in manufacturing and agriculture, even as it holds up well in construction and services.

15 September 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: Solid underlying GDP growth

• GDP was unchanged in July as an erratic fall in industrial output offset rising services.
• Underlying GDP growth looks solid to us; little spare capacity will emerge in the economy.
• We expect a hawkish week ahead, with the August data to show stabilising jobs and rising inflation.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, September 6, 2025

Surge driven by Texas; the trend is still gently upward sloping.

PM Datanote: US CPI, August

Tariffs continuing to lift goods prices; pass-through only one-third complete.

Global Datanote: ECB Press Conference, September 2025

In one line: The ECB is happy at 2%, for now. 

Global Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, September 2025

In one line: ECB doves need better persuasion skills. 

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, August

In one line: Valuation effects lift China’s FX reserves in August; expect them to drive reserves higher in H2

Global Datanote: Exports, China, August, 2025

In one line: China exports slow on low-tech weakness; US, Africa and LatAM slump offsets ASEAN strength

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, August

In one line: China exports slow on low-tech weakness; US, Africa and LatAM slump offsets ASEAN strength

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, July

In one line: Japan's real wage turned positive for the first time in seven months, paving the way for an October BoJ hike.

China+ Datanote: Flash Services PMI, Japan, August

In one line: Japan’s private sector activity posts its fastest rise since February, with broad based services and manufacturing improvements.

Global Datanote: Flash Mfg PMI, Japan, August, 2025

In one line: Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI nears 50, boosted largely by domestic demand.

China+ Datanote: Flash Mfg PMI, Japan, August

In one line: Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI nears 50, boosted largely by domestic demand.

Global Datanote: Exports, Japan, July, 2025

In one line: Japan’s export show strain from tariffs, with cars and steel leading declines.

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, July

In one line: Japan’s export show strain from tariffs, with cars and steel leading declines.