- Total HICP inflation prints for the Big Four suggest EZ headline inflation edged up to 2.0% in June.
- The ECB strategy review suggests the central bank is doing the right thing with the right tools; go figure!
- Money data still point to upside risks to GDP, but don’t capture what is happening in net trade.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- An upward revision to Q1 consumer spending growth gives a more solid base to economic growth.
- The household saving rate dip in Q1 is a sign of things to come, which should support consumer spending.
- Firms are borrowing again as all the “Liberation Day” surge in economic policy uncertainty has unwound.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Manufacturing activity index rises thanks to eased tariff tensions and domestic policy support
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
China's Official PMIs point to improving manufacturing and construction activity, but weak jobs market
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Another fall in inflation expectations.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Pointing to upside risks for our Q2 consumption call.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A slight rebound in inflation and consumers’ spending on course for a better Q2 than Q1
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Tokyo inflation cools, thanks to restart of energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
Tokyo inflation cools thanks to energy subsidies restart
China's industrial profits hit by slower investment income and weak demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A bump in the road for the uptrend in real Philippine import demand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Banxico cut, but one dissenting vote signals caution as inflation expectations drift further from the target.
- Forward guidance was softer; the Board dropped the reference to steady cuts, indicating a possible pause.
- Weak domestic demand supports disinflation; real rates remain well above neutral.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We no longer expect the SBV to restart cuts, with the worst-case tariff scenario looking less likely…
- …Plus, credit growth is already soaring and the authorities won’t want to risk rocking the VND further.
- Philippine household savings recovered more substantially in 2024, but the Covid hole remains huge.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- French and Spanish headline inflation rose in June, pointing to upside risk to our EZ call.
- We are sticking to our forecast for an increase in the EZ headline to 2.0% from 1.9%.
- That marks a small rise, which need not worry the ECB, especially given stable inflation expectations.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
