Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
No end in sight for the housing slump.
- Online searches for furniture and household goods are surging, and Redbook’s data look red-hot...
- ...But Bloomberg’s Second Measure data—a better guide to spending—point to an emerging slowdown.
- …That subdued steer is echoed by falling airline pas- senger numbers and weak consumer confidence.
- Brazil — Institutional tensions deepen
- Mexico — Morena facing mounting pressure
- Colombia — Violence reshaping presidential election
- BI surprised almost everyone with a larger-than-expected 50bp rate hike, amid the IDR’s struggles…
- …This increase should be a one-off; pressure on the IDR will ease and the CPI target still looks secure.
- Malaysian export growth hit 37% in April, as the AI boom further boosted electronics exports.
- President Trump’s visit to China achieved no major breakthroughs, but strategic dialogue will continue…
- …Underwhelming business deals were signed, while no decisions were made on extending the trade truce.
- Japan’s Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, but Hormuz risks complicate the BoJ’s rate-hike decision in June.
- Inflation in the Eurozone rose to 3% in April and will increase further in coming months.
- The ECB is on track for a 25bp rate increase in June, and we look for a back-to-back hike in July.
- A return to 2% inflation next year is a fool’s hope, and the ECB will have to adjust its outlook accordingly.
- Some frozen government-set prices, a utility-bill cut and the early Easter combined to lower inflation.
- We think that most—not all—of the downside inflation surprise in April, such as in airfares, will unwind.
- Weaker underlying inflation lowers the chance of a rate hike, but surveys still point to a sharp acceleration.
Unsurprising up-tick in Malaysian inflation.
- US - Will “supercore” inflation ever return to target-consistent levels?
- EUROZONE - Margin of safety in the EZ labour market growing thinner
- UK - GDP review: healthy underlying growth suggests resilient GDP
- CHINA+ - China’s shaky start to Q2 to put the focus on policy implementation
- EM ASIA - Thailand’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP provides no real comfort
- LATAM - Brazilian consumption still resilient thanks to temporary supports
- Current fiscal plans imply low-income households will
be squeezed by policy in 2027.
- The President’s budget proposal entails more pain for
households, to part-fund higher military spending.
- Congress will temper proposed cuts to nondefense
spending, but households likely still will be worse-off.
- Primary sectors dragged Chilean growth lower in Q1, despite relatively resilient domestic demand.
- Higher oil prices now threaten inflation, household incomes and the external accounts simultaneously.
- Weak activity will likely keep BCCh cautious, despite elevated external uncertainty and inflation risks.
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore smashed expectations in April, hitting 24.5%...
- …Thanks to continued growth in electronics exports, but also other random unexpected spikes.
- Malaysian CPI ticked up slightly in April, but the more important core inflation moderated.
- China’s tier-one cities are enjoying a ‘mini boom’, raising hopes that the end of the property downturn is in sight.
- But national housing inventories still have almost a year to go before they reach a sustainable level.
- Cities are finding new ways to unlock genuine demand, though developer funding is still under pressure.
- The EZ energy import bill is soaring and will soon push the nominal trade balance into deficit…
- …But the real trade deficit will likely be relatively stable as the volume of import growth slows.
- The hit to EZ GDP growth from falling net trade is over, but we see no strong boost any time soon.
- The sharp fall in payrolls in April looks misleading, as they are far weaker than surveys suggested.
- Payroll revisions remain predictable, and April should eventually show jobs little changed month-to-month.
- Falling jobs and dovish pay growth will keep the MPC on hold in June, but we expect wage gains to improve.
Rising mortgage rates and low confidence are stifling demand.
- In one line: External weakness and mining dragged GDP lower in Q1.
- In one line: Activity softened at the end of Q1.
- In one line: Activity softened at the end of Q1.
- China’s April data point to slowing activity, only partly explained by the global energy shock.
- Retail sales growth at 0.2% was the worst since December 2022, highlighting poor domestic demand.
- Investment is weak, though probably better than April’s figure—the worst since February 2020—suggests.
