Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, April 2026

• In one line: Keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 April 2026

RBI is keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause

9 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's April CPI forecasts alreadydated; we cut our 2026 call to 3.7%

• The RBI stayed on hold, as expected, while its new CPI outlook already looks dated, post-ceasefire…
• …A smaller diesel-price hike is now likely, and food gains have peaked; we see 2026 CPI at 3.7%.
• Taiwan’s inflation fell more than expected in March; the CBC‘s red line looks secure, for now.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Thailand, March 2026

• In one line: The bigger jolt will come in April.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 April 2026

Oil surge leads to an immediate breach of the BSP’s target range
Recovering domestic demand will soon hit a brick wall

8 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's solid Q1 GDP may be as good as it gets in 2026

• GDP growth in Vietnam cooled just a tad in Q1, to 8.0% from 8.3%, if stripping out residual seasonality.
• We still see full-year 2026 growth moderating to 7.5%; high export base effects are now in the frame.
• This oil shock is looking worse for Vietnam than the one in 2022; we’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to 4.8%.

7 April 2026 Emerging Asia Indonesia's austerity drive partly a catch-up play; fuel hike still likely

• Indonesia made a host of current spending cuts last week, but we still think a fuel-price hike is likely.
• Real GST growth in India held steady in March, indicating no rapid hit from the war or INR fallout.
• We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Thailand further, to 1.3%, given the latest diesel-price rise.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, March 2026

• In one line: A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, February 2026

• In one line: Trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, March 2026

• In one line: Iran war hits most factories hard; price shock immediate and big.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 April 2026

Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects

2 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Inflation, not growth, is a bigger near-term issue for ASEAN factories

• Stagflationary signs were seen in ASEAN’s PMI, as in India, but inflation is a bigger worry for the former.
• Indonesia’s soft March CPI is a big misdirect; we now see an eventual fuel price hike of 5% this year…
• …February’s export print was a let-down, but should mark the year’s low, as commodities will soon help.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, January 2026

• In one line: Underlying spending growth was still in recovery mode pre-Iran war.

1 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Confirmation the GST pop in Indian IP is over; fuel-tax cut no relief

• India’s Feb. IP validates our above-consensus call, but the post-GST pop in consumer goods is done…
• …Output looks poised to hit a wall in March; last week’s fuel-tax cuts buy consumers time, not relief.
• Thai consumption was having a decent Q1 pre-war, amid an easing in structural high-debt headwinds.

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, February 2026

• In one line: Likely as good as we’ll get in H1, if not 2026 at large.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, February 2026

• In one line: Likely as good as we’ll get in H1, if not 2026 at large.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 March 2026

Two-way trade in the Philippines was picking up steam before the war

30 March 2026 Emerging Asia INR's 'record' fall in context; more a threat to Q2 growth than inflation

• The INR fell below the symbolic 94 level versus USD last week; the threat is to growth, not so much CPI.
• The BSP held at its off-cycle meeting last Thursday, while likely inadvertently setting a high bar for hikes.
• The global energy shock is hitting inflation harder in Thailand; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 0.9%.

March 2026 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

CPI FORECASTS UP ACROSS THE BOARD IN EM ASIA

• …BUT FROM LOW STARTING POINTS; ONLY SBV SET TO HIKE

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Fundamental downward pressure on the THB is building rapidly.