Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Flash EC Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, March 2026

In one line: Initial hit from Trump’s war is worse for EZ sentiment than his tariffs. 

20 March 2026 Global Monitor Special Edition

• US - How would the Fed react if oil prices soar to $150?
• EUROZONE - EZ inflation to jump to just under 3% by May; ECB will hike in response
• UK - Oil prices will need to go higher for longer to justify a rate hike
• CHINA+ - China less exposed to the oil-price jolt than Japan
• EM ASIA - India should be able to stomach oil at $150 this year; main risk is 2027
• LATAM - Energy shock tests growth, inflation and policy outlook

Global Datanote: 20-Day Exports, China, March 2026

• In one line: Korean exports jump, thanks to chip sales; oil product shipments surge

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 23 March 2026: Korean exports jump, thanks to chip sales

In one line: Korean exports jump, thanks to chip sales; oil product shipments surge

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 March 2026

Inflation broadly accelerating in Q1

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, January / February 2026

• In one line: Slowing pay growth keeps the bar to a hike high, but payrolls show the labour market rebounding ahead of the Iran war.

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, March 2026

• In one line: MPC surprises market hawkishly, guidance symmetric but more open to hikes than expected.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March 2026

• In one line: War in the Middle East will hit sentiment in the manufacturing sector hard.

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, February 2026

• In one line:The public finances will be hit hard if high energy prices persist for long.

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, February 2026

• In one line: Infrastructure sectors carrying more of the weight alone; overall momentum still solid.

March- US Economic Chartbook

HIGHER GAS PRICES WILL HIT REAL INCOMES BY 1%

• THE FED WILL WORRY MORE ABOUT JOBS THAN THE CPI IN Q4

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, January 2026

In one line: Net trade in goods on track for a boost to growth in Q1. 

Global Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, March 2026

• In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery”

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 March 2026: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"

In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"

23 March 2026 US Monitor Markets are overlooking the labor market damage of the oil shock

• The 1990 oil shock was key to the ensuing recession; the FOMC eventually eased despite 6% inflation.
• The economy is less oil intensive and firms’ balance sheets are more robust now; a recession is unlikely...
• ...But this FOMC has been very responsive to labor market weakness; we still expect easing by year-end.

23 March 2026 LatAm Monitor Colombia's growth holds up, but outlook weakens as distortions rise

• Consumption in Colombia remains strong, but weak capex undermines medium-term growth prospects.
• Tight financial conditions and fiscal consolidation will weigh on demand, exposing fragile growth dynamics.
• Higher oil prices offer support, but inflation pressures and policy tightening limit upside for activity.