Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: BoJ signals more rate hikes, anticipating inflation risks from higher crude oil costs
- In one line: Inflation remains too high for comfort.
In one line: A rebound, but unemployment fears remain high.
In one line: Details are better than the headline.
Worst of the deficit widening in Thailand is hopefully in the rear-view mirror
- - CHINA'S Q2 GROWTH NEAR BOTTOM OF TARGET RANGE
- - BOJ SIGNALS READINESS TO SPEED UP RATE HIKES
- - BOK'S HAWKISH POSTURE BASED ON CHIP EXPORT BOOST
- In one line: Producer price inflation still set to accelerate in the coming months despite easing energy costs.
- In one line: Easing activity and price pressures suggest rates on hold this year.
- In one line: Disinflation resumed in June, but services inflation remains sticky.
- Consumption looks far less resilient after big down- ward revisions to spending, especially on services.
- Low saving, flat incomes and fading tax-refund support point to slower consumption growth in Q3.
- The May core PCE deflator was lifted by airline fares and rebounding stock prices; June will be better.
- Mexico's headline inflation eased further, but services pressures complicate Banxico's outlook.
- Economic activity strengthened in April, suggesting Q1's GDP fall overstated underlying weakness.
- We expect an extended rate pause, but the next policy move is still likely to be another rate cut.
- Taiwan’s retail trade has been hit less hard by the oil shock; the AI bubble bursting would be much worse.
- The BoT is rightly becoming more at ease with inflation, but its forecasts are still too pessimistic…
- …We’ve raised our 2026-to-27 current account forecasts to -1.5% and 0.0% given the oil-price drop.
- China has rolled out plans to stabilise and improve the quality of foreign investment, given a slumping trend.
- It aims not only to restore investors’ confidence, but also to accelerate the transformation of the services sector.
- Japan’s manufacturing PMI likely peaked in June, with precautionary stockpiling demand set to ease.
- Consumer confidence in Germany is rebounding in June but still signals subdued spending growth…
- …The outlook for real income growth is improving though, and industry should still do well in Q2.
- The early read from Q2 nowcasts for France and Germany is for 0.1% GDP growth in both countries.
- Gilt yields have fallen sharply recently, as they are more sensitive than Bunds or Treasuries to oil prices.
- But breakeven inflation rates suggest the market is underpricing the fiscal risk from Mr. Burnham.
- So, we think gilt yields will hold close to current levels as the likely new Labour leader’s priorities emerge.
- In one line: Still somewhat resilient to the Middle East shock.
- In one line: A much more comfortable hold.
- In one line: A much more comfortable hold.
THE RUN OF BAD INFLATION NEWS WILL END SHORTLY...
- ...THE MPC NEEDS TO HIKE BANK RATE ONLY ONE LAST TIME
