Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Emerging Asia Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects
- In one line: Underlying spending growth was still in recovery mode pre-Iran war.
- India’s Feb. IP validates our above-consensus call, but the post-GST pop in consumer goods is done…
- …Output looks poised to hit a wall in March; last week’s fuel-tax cuts buy consumers time, not relief.
- Thai consumption was having a decent Q1 pre-war, amid an easing in structural high-debt headwinds.
- In one line: Likely as good as we’ll get in H1, if not 2026 at large.
Two-way trade in the Philippines was picking up steam before the war
- The INR fell below the symbolic 94 level versus USD last week; the threat is to growth, not so much CPI.
- The BSP held at its off-cycle meeting last Thursday, while likely inadvertently setting a high bar for hikes.
- The global energy shock is hitting inflation harder in Thailand; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 0.9%.
CPI FORECASTS UP ACROSS THE BOARD IN EM ASIA
- …BUT FROM LOW STARTING POINTS; ONLY SBV SET TO HIKE
- In one line: Fundamental downward pressure on the THB is building rapidly.
- Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February was a big miss, but this has been deteriorating for a while.
- The oil-price spike will likely see a current account deficit of -1.5% this year, after +3.1% in 2025.
- The BoT won’t mind if the THB falls further though, as it rightly has been more worried about strength.
Iran war, unsurprisingly, hits India's PMIs immediately
- India’s PMIs have been softening for a while, but the Iran-war hit is notable, especially in manufacturing…
- …The complete PMIs for Q1 back our downbeat call for GDP of 6.1%; the long-term outlook is unfazed.
- Taiwanese retail sales—ex-vehicles—are better than they look; the war is unlikely to hurt tourist inflows.
- In one line: Infrastructure sectors carrying more of the weight alone; overall momentum still solid.
- Last week’s fuel-price gains in the Philippines and the firmer oil outlook will lead to 4%-plus inflation…
- … A hike is now on the table for April, but it would be rash, given the more forgiving backdrop this time.
- The start of modest fuel-price rises in Thailand will help lift the economy out of outright deflation.
- Oil at $150 should pose no urgent CPI risk to India; fiscally, it’s better placed to manage this shock…
- …Main threat would be higher imported inflation from late-2026, as the CA deficit would blow up.
- Indonesia could see an 11% rise in subsidised fuel prices this year—more than in 2022—with $150 oil.
- Bank Indonesia held rates yesterday, as expected, and no longer pledged to find room for more cuts.
- We lower our estimate for India’s current account deficit this year to -3.0% of GDP, due to the oil crisis.
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports for January- to-February point to 49.7% growth in electronics.
- In one line: Big short-term downside risks to the deficit due to the Iran war.
Iran war forcing an upgrade to our 2026 India WPI forecast to 5%
- Introducing our regional activity heat maps, giving a snapshot of cyclical growth stage and momentum…
- …They show that major exporters continue to outperform domestic-oriented peers in early 2026.
- Indian inflation rose further in February on food prices; our 4.0% view for 2026 remains appropriate.
- In one line: Still mainly a food story, but Middle East pressures should surface in the March data.
A decent, if unimpressive, start to the year for Indonesian retail sales
