Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Emerging Asia Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)

28 October 2024 Emerging Asia October minutes reveal cracks in RBI's status-quo majority bloc

  • The minutes of the RBI’s October meeting suggest a possible pathway to a 4-to-2 cut in December.
  • Core IP growth should bounce modestly in September, but largely on a base-effect technicality.
  • Taiwanese GDP growth likely slowed further in Q3, to 3.4%, as support from domestic demand wanes.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 October 2024

India’s PMIs start Q4 on a cautiously better note, after the September carnage

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor India's PMIs start Q4 respectably, but their downtrend remains intact

  • India’s flash PMIs for October show a bounce in both surveys from the painful September plunge.
  • The moderating trend from the Q1 highs is still intact, though; the same is true for leading gauges.
  • Both surveys suggest that hiring is going gang-busters, but we aren’t moved, looking at the EPFO.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

October 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

A SECOND BOT CUT IN DECEMBER IS TOUCH-AND-GO

  • …THE RBI TURNS ‘NEUTRAL’; ALL EYES ON Q3 GDP

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 October 2024 Emerging Asia Manufacturing single-handedly drives Singapore's scorching Q3

  • An overdue revival in manufacturing drove almost all of Singapore’s hot advance Q3 GDP surprise…
  • …But this may be a one-off, as export growth likely will cool soon; the construction outlook is still solid.
  • Adverse export base effects should see trade hitting India’s Q3 GDP; we’ll be downgrading our 6.4% call.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor BoT's long overdue cut is here; a December move is touch-and-go

  • The Bank of Thailand finally joined the regional easing wave, surprising with a 25bp policy rate cut…
  • …Our dovish view was vindicated, and we still expect another cut in December if Q3 GDP disappoints.
  • We reckon it’s too early to rule out a shift to 50bp cuts by the BSP; policy remains extremely tight.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, September

  • In one line: Thank a big reversal in the August leap in gold imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

  • In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

  • In one line: Many more cuts to come, and potentially larger ones from December.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor BoT's long overdue cut is here; a December move is touch-and-go

  • The Bank of Thailand finally joined the regional easing wave, surprising with a 25bp policy rate cut…
  • …Our dovish view was vindicated, and we still expect another cut in December if Q3 GDP disappoints.
  • We reckon it’s too early to rule out a shift to 50bp cuts by the BSP; policy remains extremely tight.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, September

  • In one line: Blame the continued reversal of helpful food base effects; m/m trends are still improving.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Anti-climactic end to Q3 for Indonesian trade; expect a GDP hit

  • Indonesian export growth weakened in September, highlighting the limits of the commodities boost…
  • …This price lift is also fading on the import side, increasingly exposing sluggish real import demand.
  • We see the current account deficit at 0.8% of GDP this year, and trade should hit Q3 GDP by 0.2pp.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor December RBI rate cut still alive, despite hot September CPI

  • Indian CPI predictably bounced sharply last month as favourable food base effects waned further…
  • …Short-term food-price pressures are still broadly improving, and CPI expectations pose no worries.
  • IP growth saw red ink in August for the first time since late-2022; the outlook remains grim.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, September

  • In one line: Primary articles inflation bounces on lower base effects, but underlying inflation remains muted.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 October 2024 Emerging Asia Don't call time on Taiwanese exports, despite September drop

  • Taiwanese export growth fell sharply in September, highlighting the risks of its growing US reliance…
  • …But this should be a blip, as for ward-looking indicators remain solid, especially for chips.
  • CPI has fallen below the CBC’s 2% alert level for the first time in a while, but cuts are still off the table.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 October 2024

Philippine exports are finally staging a real comeback at the margin

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 October 2024

No cut, but the sea change in RBI policy is here
Indonesian retail sales growth recovers to a five-month high

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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