Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- GDP growth in Thailand disappointed, increasing modestly to 3.2% in Q4, from 3.0% in Q3…
- …Helpful import base effects did a lot of the heavy lifting; ‘robust’ export momentum remains fragile.
- Domestic demand was nowhere to be seen; we still expect a small GDP growth dip in 2025, to 2.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP surprised by hitting pause, blaming tariff uncertainty; we still see 100bp in cuts this year.
- Indian inflation dropped closer to the RBI’s 4% target in January; more downside in food is coming.
- We have lowered our 2025 average inflation fore- cast to 3.8%, with core price pressures also cooling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Sales growth in Indonesia rebounded in December, as consumers brought forward some spending…
- …Ahead of what was ultimately a narrow VAT rate hike; expect an immediate correction in January.
- Overall, headline growth remains historically tepid, and leading indicators are still uninspiring.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese export growth fell more than expected in January; blame the Lunar New Year noise…
- …Yet, demand from China remains weak, with exports there falling in three of the past four months.
- Headline inflation rose too, but this—again—seems due mainly to residual Lunar New Year effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnamese export growth plunged into the red in January, but this can be explained fully by Tet noise.
- The January jump in inflation to a six-month high was policy-induced; again, no need to panic.
- The BSP isn’t too fussed by the upside surprise in January inflation; official core has clearly bottomed.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth stayed at 5% in Q4, but we reckon in reality it was closer to the mid-4% range.
- The unsustainable Q3 boost from stocks reversed, but this was offset by statistical discrepancies.
- Government spending and exports were the real—tangible—bright spots, countering capex softness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PMIs show that regional manufacturing is still largely waning; watch for potential US front-loading.
- Indonesia’s shockingly low January CPI was policy-induced and will reverse; it masked a jump in food.
- Fiscal policy in India will stay contractionary, but the government riskily is hoping for a pain-free FY26.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
