Pantheon Publications

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, June

• In one line: A forgetful Q2, overall.

Global Datanote: CPI, India, June

• In one line: Outright food deflation is here, as predicted.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, June

• In one line: Outright food deflation is here, as predicted.

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, June

• In one line: Modest, on-and-off deflation looks set to be the theme for H2.

14 July 2025 Emerging Asia Not all of EM Asia is exposed to H2 correction in front-loaded exports

• Front-loaded exports from EM Asia will start to correct in H2, even if US “reciprocal” tariffs soften.
• A few economies are much less exposed, though; we note a couple of sector-specific upside risks.
• Longer term, we maintain that EM Asia exports will have a brighter future, supporting their markets.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 July 2025

Indonesian sales remain tepid, at best… stimulus ‘pop’ looking small

10 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BNM more worried about GDP growth than we expected

• The BNM made its first rate cut in five years, reducing the overnight policy rate to 2.75% from 3.00%.
• The Bank is clearly prioritising weak consumption and exports above the risk of re-sparking inflation.
• Indonesian retail sales remain subpar in spite of the May bounce; no early signs of a stimulus boost.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 July 2025

Philippine sales are now effectively flat-lining

8 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnamese growth to come off the boil in H2 if GDP data turn realistic

• GDP growth in Vietnam jumped to 8.0% in Q2 from 7.1% in Q1, comfortably outstripping all forecasts…
• …But brisk export front-loading to the US will unwind shortly, especially with a ‘deal’ now in place.
• We have raised our 2025 GDP forecast to 6.9%, implying an H2 slowdown to an average of 6.4%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 July 2025

A few more months of modest Thai deflation on the cards

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 July 2025

Philippine inflation still comfortably below the BSP’s range

7 July 2025 Emerging Asia Thai household debt finally starting to shrink; this'll be long and painful

• Thai household debt has shrunk for the first time in over 20 years, but its ratio to GDP is still very high…
• …Consumer NPLs resumed their rise in Q1 after a Q4 stall; bad initial news for “You Fight, We Help”.
• Philippine inflation inched up in June; the low-CPI environment is yet to lift confidence meaningfully.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, June

• In one line: Expect a further rise in food inflation in the July report.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, May

• In one line: Export growth probably will buckle again in Q3.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, June

• In one line: Post-export-front-loading clouds continue to darken.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 July 2025

Post-export-front-loading clouds for ASEAN continue to darken
Indonesian export growth probably will buckle again in Q3
Expect a further rise in Indonesian food inflation in the July report

2 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Tariff pause has done ASEAN no favours; an extension won't either

• ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
• Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
• Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, May

• In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, May

• In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, April

• In one line: Headline absurdity continues.