- In one line: A surprising—though likely temporary—dip into outright deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A 7-month high, but no clear signs of US front-loading, yet.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A 7-month high for ASEAN’s PMI, but no clear signs of US front-loading, yet
A surprising—though likely temporary—dip into outright deflation in Indonesia
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI leapt suddenly in February to a seven-month high of 51.5…
- …But it seems to have been flattered by residual seasonality, and pockets of weakness still persist.
- The descent into outright deflation in Indonesia should be short-lived, as the power relief expires.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Offsetting base effects all over the place; momentum is solid, otherwise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A trade- and consumption-driven bounce; the economy is still operating below potential.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A surprisingly fast start to 2025 for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s Q4 GDP print was exactly in line wit expectations, at 6.2%, rebounding from 5.6%…
- …Consumption, mainly rural, continues to find its feet, while exports—especially services—are flying.
- The Philippines’ structural RRR cuts are likely over, but they are no substitute for lower TRR rates.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
RBI RATE CUTS FINALLY HERE; EXPECT 2 MORE IN Q2
- …THAI GROWTH HAS LIKELY PEAKED, PROMPTING A BOT CUT
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT surprised this month, resuming its easing with a 25bp cut, against the consensus for a hold…
- …We expect one—final—cut in Q2, as rising GDP growth and inflation should shortly reverse course.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth jumped in January, but the underlying story remains weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indian services wake up from its slumber, but a Q1 GDP slowdown is still in play
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam has officially raised its 2025 GDP growth target to 8%; its doable if M2 doesn’t fall too fast…
- …But interest rates are clearly on an uptrend, and the dark cloud of NPLs is still hanging over banks.
- We expect growth in India to bounce to 6% in Q4, but most of this will come from technicalities.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 5.75%, hitting pause again after January’s surprise rate cut…
- …We’re sticking to our above-consensus 100bp 2025 easing call, with inflation set to cool further.
- Mr. Prabowo’s ‘austerity’ leaves the ball more in BI’s court too, even if this drive doesn’t fully materialise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Deficit hit on both sides of the balance.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand disappointed, increasing modestly to 3.2% in Q4, from 3.0% in Q3…
- …Helpful import base effects did a lot of the heavy lifting; ‘robust’ export momentum remains fragile.
- Domestic demand was nowhere to be seen; we still expect a small GDP growth dip in 2025, to 2.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
