- The big drop in Vietnamese GDP growth to 5.7% in Q1 was due mainly to seasonal noise unwinding…
- …Trade enjoyed a robust start to the year, but the same cannot be said for household spending.
- We push back our expectation for the first BI cut to Q4, given rising and stubborn food inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A y/y bounce inflated by base effects, but trends at the margin are finally turning.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
8% GROWTH IN INDIA AN UNSUSTAINABLE FACADE
- …TAIWAN’S SURPRISE HIKE SHOULD BE A ‘ONE-AND-DONE’
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Ignore the narrowing of Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February; the broad trend is deterioration…
- …Year-over-year export growth is topping out , with a number of major markets still very sluggish.
- Don’t get carried away by the jump in Taiwanese retail sales growth in February to nearly 10%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The China Plus One wave is becoming clear in FDI, with flows into ASEAN outpacing those into China…
- …But Singapore’s huge magnetic pull skews the regional story; Vietnam is a clear winner, otherwise.
- India’s PMIs enjoyed a solid bounce in Q1, pointing to only a minor slowdown in GDP growth from Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India's manufacturing PMI jumps to a 17-year high, but so what?
The rebuild of inflationary pressures in services is becoming harder to ignore
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still waiting for the first of a couple green lights.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Still waiting for the first of a couple green lights.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia left the BI rate unchanged at 6.00% yesterday, as universally expected.
- Its ongoing insistence on the need to safeguard the IDR is unwarranted; the carry trade has long turned.
- The Board’s thinking on GDP is becoming more muddled; expect to see the first 25bp cut in June.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A one-off, or is the lumpy slide in non-oil imports finally over?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The early 2024 misery in exports continues.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The early 2024 misery in Indonesian exports continues
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian retail sales growth remains well below average, despite the January bounce
Upstream core inflation in India is still MIA; great
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth bounced merely to 1.1% in January, remaining well below par…
- …The passenger-car sales data are even more abysmal, amid a steady deterioration in confidence.
- We reckon Malaysian retail sales growth bottomed out in January and will likely rise from February.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Food inflation in India looks set to remain sticky until mid-year, amid the collapse in farm output growth...
- ...Forcing us to raise our 2024 CPI forecast to 4.6%, and push back the likely first rate cut to August.
- The slowdown in industry is becoming increasingly broad-based and will soon hit GDP growth hard.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Delaying our first RBI rate cut call to August; industry is floundering, forget the H2 2023 ’strength’ in GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Delaying our first RBI rate cut call to August; industry is floundering, forget the H2 2023 ’strength’ in GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A decent, if quiet, start to the year for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
