Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Bank Indonesia held rates yesterday, as expected, and no longer pledged to find room for more cuts.
- We lower our estimate for India’s current account deficit this year to -3.0% of GDP, due to the oil crisis.
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports for January- to-February point to 49.7% growth in electronics.
- Surging energy prices will hit disposable income growth and consumers’ spending this year…
- …But household balance sheets are strong; consumers will keep spending.
- We’re lowering our growth forecasts for this year by 0.3pp, and by 0.1pp next year as spending slows.
- Inflation will peak at over 5% if oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, requiring hikes to Bank Rate.
- An oil price below $125 leaves the MPC just enough room to hold rates, but it is borderline in some cases.
- The MPC will need clarity over energy supplies in late summer to be sure a second price spike is avoided.
- FOMC participants will lift their Q4 forecasts for both core PCE inflation and the unemployment rate.
- The median participant likely will still expect 25bp easing this year, but risks are skewed to no cuts.
- We still look for 75bp easing, but have pushed back our forecast for the first cut to September.
- Economic activity in Brazil began the year on a solid footing, but the upturn is still uneven.
- Higher oil prices improve the external balance but risk reigniting inflation pressures.
- The COPOM faces a delicate balance between stabilising growth and preserving inflation credibility.
- China’s activity data for the first two months of this year paint a brighter picture than we expected...
- ...But stronger consumption is largely a temporary effect of higher spending during the extended holiday.
- Policy-supported infrastructure investment rebounded earlier than we expected; property sector is still weak.
- The conflict in the Middle East pits energy prices and the CHF in a tug of war over Swiss imported inflation.
- A prolonged conflict would push headline CPI to the middle of the SNB’s inflation target range this year.
- The SNB will leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, and also throughout 2026.
- Erratic falls in equipment manufacturing and mining kept GDP unchanged month-to-month in January.
- We lower our forecast for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from 0.3% previously.
- War in Iran is a serious downside risk to activity, but we expect slower growth rather than a sudden stop.
- QCEW data suggest payrolls probably fell by about 10K per month in the six months to September.
- The gap between first and final payroll estimates is trending at about 70K, still big relative to history.
January’s jump in housing starts will unwind; population growth is slow and affordability
- stretched.
- Brazil’s February inflation confirms the disinflation trend, but the oil-price surge carries upside risk.
- Higher oil prices could delay the COPOM’s easing cycle, keeping financial conditions tight.
- Retail sales started the year strongly, but low confidence signals fragile consumption.
- Malaysian January retail sales volumes dipped on a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis.
- We expect a mild increase in inflation over the year because of the Middle East crisis...
- …Which could create risks to financial stability, via higher debt, if it doesn’t curb consumer spending.
- China’s exports sustained a robust performance in the first two months of 2026...
- ...Meaning policymakers feel little pressure to spur domestic demand in the near term.
- Falling land sales in the first two months point to sustained property investment weakness.
- Safe-haven flows have pushed the Swiss franc close to record highs against the euro and US dollar.
- The risk of an energy shock has weakened the euro, making it harder for the SNB to weaken the franc.
- Appreciation driven by risk-on sentiment will offset downward pressure from interest rate differentials.
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with Ms. Dhingra and Mr. Taylor voting for a cut.
- The data flow has been slightly dovish lately, but war in Iran has ripped up the ‘disinflation’ playbook.
- Guidance will shift towards giving rate-setters the option to hike in 2026, if required.
- The year-to-date increase in the core CPI is in line with its 2015-to-19 average.
- Airline fares and used auto prices will soar, but tariff pass-through is mostly over; rents will slow further.
- The core PCE deflator again likely rose more quickly than the core CPI in February, but will slow mid-year.
- Brazil — Weathering volatility; outlook still positive
- Mexico — Absorbing oil shock but holding record highs
- Chile — Supportive domestic backdrop still intact
- Upside risks to EZ inflation are rising by the day, as the war in Iran curtails movement through Hormuz.
- Inflation in refined oil products could stay elevated in Europe even if crude prices fall back.
- Our model currently points to German and EZ HICP inflation at 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively, in March.
- We plot how the 2026 energy surge, and position of the UK economy, compares to 2022.
- Oil and natural-gas prices have so far risen by a similar percentage to 2022, but may be fading sooner.
- More spare capacity exists and M4 growth is slower than in 2022, but inflation expectations are deanchored.
- The highest net balance of small business reported rising sales in February since May 2022...
- ...But elevated uncertainty is keeping capex intentions at multi-year lows, and hiring plans subdued.
- We are revising up our forecast for the January core PCE deflator; prices for legal services soared.
- Headline inflation in Colombia eased in February, but core and services prices continue to rise.
- The minimum-wage shock and indexation threaten to halt disinflation and keep expectations high this year.
- A fragmented Congress and competitive presidential race raise political risk premia across markets.
