Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Most Committee members stuck to language implying an easing bias, rather than placate the hawks.
- Powell’s decision to stay on means the President must use Miran’s seat to place Warsh on the FOMC.
- We look for Q1 GDP growth of 1.8%, with consumption mediocre and investment lifted by the AI boom.
- We now see a relatively small rise in Eurozone HICP inflation in April, by 0.1pp, to 2.7%.
- Energy inflation climbed further in the EZ, but the core fell due to a temporary slide in services inflation.
- EC selling price expectations rose across the board in April, and recession probability remained low.
- Household inflation expectations eased—although were still high—in April, according to YouGov.
- But we think the MPC can take limited comfort, because expectations still look de-anchored.
- Consumers are more attentive to inflation now than before 2022, raising risks of second-round effects.
- Regular gasoline prices hit a 2026 high earlier this week, despite the modest dip in oil prices.
- Spending on fuel and discretionary services is solid for now, but demand usually wilts after a few months.
- The labor market components of the Conference Board survey suggest hiring remains very weak.
- Brazil’s inflation story is shifting; external shocks are driving a renewed increase in prices.
- The key challenge now is to stop a temporary shock becoming persistent; the COPOM will be cautious.
- Exports are surging in Mexico on non-manufacturing strength, but weak capex limits broader gains.
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady at 0.75% yesterday, amid uncertainty in the Middle East.
- Governor Ueda’s mixed message on policy direction could invite speculation on USDJPY.
- We think a June rate hike is still on the table, as long as prospects for a lasting ceasefire have improved by then.
- ECB consumer inflation expectations jumped in March, to 3%, on a three-year basis.
- The ECB’s bank lending survey points to tightening credit standards and weakening loan demand.
- Markets are still pricing the path for the ECB, based on inflation, inflation expectations and the oil price.
- The latest public finances data show cumulative borrowing for 2025/26 close to the OBR’s forecasts.
- But that respite will be short-lived, as the war in Iran increases borrowing in 2026/27 by about £19B.
- The Chancellor’s headroom is less affected, as long as gilt yields and inflation fall back in future years.
- The FOMC statement is unlikely to cite “two-sided” policy risk, despite better labor market data…
- …GDP growth is slow, upside inflation risks have eased, and inflation expectations remain unalarming.
- GDPNow’s Q1 estimate understates the rebound in federal spending, but the underlying picture is weak.
- Activity is weakening in Argentina, with domestic sectors lagging behind primary sectors.
- Growth is becoming less labour-intensive; external sectors are solid while domestic demand is subdued.
- The export-led recovery looks sustainable, but weak consumption and capex mean uneven growth in Q2.
- China’s industrial profits rose in Q1 on lower costs and higher revenues from precautionary front-loading.
- Producer reflation supported the rise, but was more evident in metals and upstream energy sectors.
- Profit growth will face pressure from war-related costs, fading front-loading and weak domestic demand.
- Swiss headline inflation is likely to pick up further as the disinflationary impact of the strong CHF eases.
- Second-round effects from the energy shock on core prices now look increasingly likely.
- The Swiss economy looks set for a spell of stagflation, just like its Eurozone neighbours.
- Retail sales were boosted by fuel purchases in March, which will unwind as demand normalises...
- ...but we see tentative signs that households are willing to reduce their high saving rate to smooth spending…
- ...and the GfK’s major purchases balance held firm in April, suggesting that retail sales can grind higher.
- Bank lending to businesses has shot up this year; often this signals faster growth in capex...
- ...But this time the jump in lending likely reflects a tightening of access to private credit.
- The S&P Global PMI probably is overstating the upward pressure on core inflation.
- Inflation continues to ease in Mexico, but core pressures are sticky and non-core volatility persists.
- Retail sales are weakening, with tighter financial conditions and remittances weighing on households.
- Banxico will ease cautiously as slower growth supports cuts but persistent inflation limits the pace.
- In what was a coin-toss meeting, the BSP tightened the target reverse repo rate by 25bp to 4.50%…
- …It raised its CPI forecast to above 4% for 2027; we doubt inflation will be this bad or persistent.
- India’s PMIs rebounded partially in April from the March shock, but the broad trend is still weak.
- A plunge in services PMIs warns that the growth in EZ consumers’ spending is now grinding to a halt.
- We cut our Q2 EZ GDP growth forecasts further, by 0.1pp to 0.1%, due to weakness in Germany.
- We still think the ECB will respond to the inflation shock by hiking, but markets are too hawkish.
- We expect the MPC to vote nine-to-zero to hold Bank Rate, with risks of one or two votes for a cut.
- The MPC is likely to keep its guidance little changed, emphasising that it stands ready to act if needed.
- We expect the MPC to raise its 2026 inflation forecast but cut the two-year ahead number to 1.9%.
- Weekly ADP payroll data and the ASA’s staffing index have picked up, but both have poor track records.
- Measures of job openings have worsened, and our preferred indicators of payrolls haven’t improved.
- The impact of AI on the economy looks too uncertain to justify rate cuts in the near term.
- BI remained on hold for a seventh straight meeting; the consensus, like us, now expects a long pause.
- BI’s attention remains on IDR stability, for now, but the speed of the sell-off so far is manageable.
- We agree with the Bank that the IDR is looking undervalued; it should start to find its feet next year.
