Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
- …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
- We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.
- Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
- Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
- Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.
- India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
- …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
- Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.
- Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
- …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
- Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.
- Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
- …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
- We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.
- The Philippines’ Q2 GDP beat expectations slightly, with yearly growth ticking up to 5.5% from 5.4%…
- …But this was down largely to a misleading U-turn in net exports, masking a weakening domestically.
- We reiterate our below-consensus 5.3% forecast for 2025, implying a renewed slowdown in H2.
- The RBI stood pat this month, commendably in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
- Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
- Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.
- Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
- …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
- The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.
- Two-way trade in the Philippines easily beat the consensus in June, but base effects helped hugely…
- …Still, underlying the inflated headlines are real recoveries in chip exports and capital goods imports.
- Net exports will be the star of the show in next week’s Q2 GDP; we now see the headline at 5.3%.
- Indian IP growth sank to a 10-month low in June, but the huge upgrade to May cushions this blow.
- Overall momentum continues to deteriorate, pouring a lot of cold water over the rosy PMIs…
- …The slump in consumer firms continues, but expect to see ‘better’ manufacturing in Q2 GDP.
- India’s PMIs continued to regain momentum in July on a three-month rolling basis, despite services dip.
- They point to waning downside risk to GDP growth this year, but the clouds over 2026 are darkening.
- Thailand’s near-full Q2 trade data point to a smaller but still-big net GDP boost, at +4.4pp from +7.0pp.
- Indian core IP growth rose for a second straight month in June, to 1.7%, after its April plunge…
- …Refined petroleum product growth has recovered and should stabilise from here on out.
- Overall momentum is still deteriorating, however, with the electricity slump particularly worrying.
- Bank Indonesia surprised the thin consensus for a hold yesterday with its fourth 25bp rate reduction…
- …We continue to see an end-2025 rate of 4.75%, especially given BI’s rising anxiety over loan growth.
- Indian net exports were grim in Q2, even with US front-loading, but this won’t be seen year-over-year.
- India’s two main inflation gauges were very soft in June, with food prices now deflating at all levels…
- …Food deflation at the retail level will likely persist until the end of 2025, due in part to base effects.
- We have downgraded our average CPI forecasts for this year and next to 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively.
- The BNM made its first rate cut in five years, reducing the overnight policy rate to 2.75% from 3.00%.
- The Bank is clearly prioritising weak consumption and exports above the risk of re-sparking inflation.
- Indonesian retail sales remain subpar in spite of the May bounce; no early signs of a stimulus boost.
- GDP growth in Vietnam jumped to 8.0% in Q2 from 7.1% in Q1, comfortably outstripping all forecasts…
- …But brisk export front-loading to the US will unwind shortly, especially with a ‘deal’ now in place.
- We have raised our 2025 GDP forecast to 6.9%, implying an H2 slowdown to an average of 6.4%.
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
- Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
- Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.
- Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
- …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
- Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.
- The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
- The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
- We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.
- India’s flash PMIs for June were robust, but note they remain susceptible to huge downgrades…
- …And they’re still down year-over-year in Q2, indicating big downside risk to GDP forecasts.
- Other details show waning optimism over the long run, and downward pressure building on core CPI.
