Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Simple as well as hybrid Taylor Rule models suggest the ECB will hike by 75-to-100bp this year.
- Our fair value models see sticky Bund yields around 3%, but fiscal stimulus looms as an upside risk.
- Our forecasts assume that the 2s10s curve will flatten as the ECB tightens.
- Betting markets give Sir Keir Starmer only 15% chance of being Prime Minister after September.
- So, rates markets have likely mostly priced in the impact of the Labour Party leadership changing.
- We estimate 10-year yields would rise another 7-to-10bp should Mr. Burnham win a leadership contest.
- Core retail sales were very strong again in April; sales in February and March were revised up too.
- But spending looks set to falter ahead, as the lift from tax refunds fades, and gas prices stay elevated.
- We now look for a 1% expansion in consumers’ spending in Q2, but a mere 0.5% gain in Q3.
- Leading indicators on EZ investment took a hit in early Q2, but some are overstating the weakness.
- Upturns in German manufacturing and French construction capex remain upside risks for 2026.
- Surveys signal balanced inventories ahead of frontrunning the supply shock caused by the Iran war.
- Some of March’s strong GDP gain was front-running ahead of supply-chain disruption...
- …But our measure of underlying activity grew solidly too, suggesting genuine strength.
- We now expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q2, up from 0.1% previously.
- Half of the rise in the April core PPI was due to a jump in gross margins; they won’t stay so high for long.
- A further third of the gain was driven by a step jump in transportation prices; unlikely to be repeated..
- Data center investment still is providing only a small lift to overall construction activity and employment.
- Brazil — Domestic issues cool the external-driven rally
- Mexico — Consolidating after a solid rally
- Colombia — Local flows prevent an uglier picture
- Headline inflation in India was much softer than expected in April, merely inching up to 3.5%...
- ...Low food-price base effects were the sole reason; our daily food tracker points to a big reversal in May.
- We’ve cut our 2026 average inflation forecast to 3.4%, even if diesel prices are raised by up to 8%.
- EZ employment growth slowed further in Q1, leaving a thin margin of safety ahead of the energy shock.
- Industrial production in the Eurozone fell in Q1, but the output PMI promises much better data ahead.
- French fuel prices are rising faster than in the other major EZ countries, and the government can’t help.
- We now expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% in April from 3.3% in March, in line with the MPC’s call.
- But our forecast is close to rounding down to 2.9%, and uncertainty is high, with many price resets.
- Smaller water-bill and vehicle-tax hikes than in 2025 will slow inflation, but rents will rise by more this April.
- April’s 0.38% rise in the core CPI was driven by one-time jumps in rents, airline fares and tax services.
- Surveys point to bigger rises in core goods prices, but apparel prices will fall from weather-boosted levels.
- Measures of new rents have stalled; we look for 0.20% rises in the core CPI over the next three months.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia slowed in March, but Q1 overall was the best quarter in two years.
- The historically tight job market is finally reviving wage growth, but cracks are surfacing in the former.
- Income-used data continue to show rising caution, with the share for savings now above average.
- A fuel-duty cut will keep German headline inflation in check in May, but we still see a rise to 3% soon…
- …Services inflation in Germany was pulled lower by a plunge in airfares in April; this will reverse in May.
- Italian industry ended Q1 on a strong note; ZEW investor sentiment rebounded in May.
- The gilt sell-off has further to run if Sir Keir Starmer is forced out of office in the next few weeks.
- We expect the initial payrolls estimate to show a 10K month-to-month drop in April.
- The unemployment rate should hold at 4.9% in March, and private pay growth should be unchanged.
- Malaysia retail sales growth moderated slightly in March but remained robust in Q1 overall.
- This was before the onset of the Middle East crisis though, which will hang over Q2 sales.
- This pressure will be compounded by the government’s gradual withdrawal of fuel subsidies.
- The hit to April sales from high gas prices and cooler weather likely was offset by strong tax refunds.
- We look for a 0.4% increase in headline sales, and a further 0.2% uptick in the retail control measure.
- Spending likely will slow sharply from May, however, as gas prices stay high and refunds taper off.
- Strong growth in IP investment, ex-Ireland, and capex in IT show the AI theme in the EZ macro data.
- The US is sprinting ahead on AI investment, while Europe is still walking, barely…
- …ECB data suggest US digital investment is up 80% since 2020, compared with no change in the EZ.
- We expect CPI inflation to slow to 2.9% in April from 3.3% in March.
- Utility prices fell 6.6% in April, and a range of government-set prices will rise less than a year earlier.
- Our CPI inflation call is 0.1pp lower than rate-setters expect, but we match their services inflation forecast.
- The tariffs passed through fully to the CPI by March, but energy-driven goods price hikes will take time...
- Used auto prices and airline fares probably jumped in April, while rents likely rose at twice their trend...
- ...The BLS will use a calculation that will unwind its no-change assumption for rents last October.
- Banxico’s split vote highlights growing fears over persistent inflation and narrowing room for rate cuts.
- Weak growth and greater economic slack justify final rate cut despite elevated inflation concerns.
- External risks from oil prices, Fed uncertainty and MXN volatility dominate Banxico’s reaction function.
