Pantheon Publications

12 December 2025 LatAm Monitor COPOM holds as disinflation makes headway; is a January cut plausible?

• Benign inflation prints in Brazil strengthen the case for
  easing, yet de-anchored expectations force caution.
• Activity is softening without collapsing, supporting a
  gradual, data-dependent transition towards Q1 cuts.
• But external volatility, fiscal uncertainty and currency
  risks keep the bar to a January rate cut set high.

11 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Equity Update November records, and cautious upside in 2026

• Brazil — Bull phase matures amid policy scrutiny
• Mexico — Underlying support holding
• Chile —  Testing resistance ahead of run-off election  

10 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation uptick signals caution, but Banxico still moving towards easing

• Temporary price shocks lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying pressures are modest…
• …Ongoing tariff risk and agricultural volatility keep the inflation risk balance tilted slightly to the upside.
• Inflation is improving in Brazil, but fiscal risk and tight job conditions will keep policymakers cautious.

9 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation softens slightly in Colombia, but risks remain tilted upwards

• Food deflation softened Colombia’s inflation, but sticky services and indexation are delaying disinflation.
• A widening external deficit and volatile financing flows underscore Colombia’s rising vulnerabilities.
• Minimum-wage pressures and firm domestic demand reinforce BanRep’s high-for-longer policy stance.

5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.

4 December 2025 LatAm Monitor FX Update LatAm currency gains amid rising 2026 risks

• Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
• Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
• Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds

3 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial weakness deepens, strengthening case for BCB easing

• Industrial output in Brazil disappointed across most categories, as tight financial conditions bite…
• …The PMI signals to ongoing weakness, though sentiment has steadied even as firms trim production.
• Benign price dynamics in Peru leave room for a final rate cut, potentially at next week’s meeting.

2 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile enters Q4 with firmer growth; political clarity will boost confidence

• The mining rebound and resilient domestic demand
  lift activity in Chile; the near-term outlook is benign…
• …Improving sentiment and rising capex point to firmer
  momentum heading into early 2026.
• Political clarity and expectations of fiscal discipline
  under a Kast presidency reinforce investor confidence.

26 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's inflation and retail data support Banxico's cautious policy

• Steady core inflation and temporary non-core shocks reinforce Banxico’s 
  data-dependent easing.
• Retail sales resilience contrasts with softer sentiment, indicating consumption held up by easing inflation.
• Mexico’s recovery prospects hinge on lower rates, stable external conditions and subdued inflation.

25 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's overheating economy tests BanRep's inflation resolve

• Robust domestic demand and fiscal expansion in Colombia are pushing economic activity above trend.
• Sticky services inflation and rising wage pressures are delaying a return to BanRep’s target.
• High real rates lend credibility, but fiscal strain and election dynamics keep policy firmly on hold.

20 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Political noise and policy risks mount across the region

• Brazil — Politics entering a noisy phase
• Mexico — Security tensions and USMCA risks
• Colombia —  Risks rising ahead of 2026 election

19 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile facing decisive run-off after fragmented first round boosts right

• Chile’s election showed right-leaning voters rallying behind Kast, giving him an advantage in the run-off…
• …While the left will be limited by its narrow base, struggling to broaden support beyond core voters.
• Q3 GDP suffered a small fall as mining disruption offset solid growth across key non-mining sectors.

18 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economy slowing rapidly in Q3; Chile's first round fragmented

• Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
• Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
• Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.

14 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's disinflation firms as activity softens; COPOM signals patience

• Inflation in Brazil fell markedly in October, driven by a stronger BRL and softer domestic demand.
• Services are the main growth anchor, while retail sales have weakened due to tight credit and uncertainty.
• The hawkish hold from the COPOM prepares markets for gradual 2026 rate cuts amid ongoing risks.

13 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Excellent recent performance, and Q1 outlook is relatively benign

• Brazil — Rally extends as confidence builds
• Argentina — Soars on election relief, but risks ahead
• Colombia — Outlook still bright but cautious

12 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Broad-based disinflation in Chile; fiscal risks shaping 2026 outlook

• Flat CPI in Chile in October confirms easing inflation momentum, allowing gradual BCCh rate cuts ahead.
• Robust trade and capex offset softer consumption, maintaining Chile’s balanced growth in Q4 and Q1.
• Fiscal fragility remains a key medium-term issue, demanding renewed consolidation efforts.

7 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BCB stands pat, showing caution on inflation; Banxico cuts, as expected

• The COPOM held the Selic at 15%, reaffirming its hawkish stance amid slow disinflation and global risk.
• Inflation expectations continue to ease, but the Board stressed patience and vigilance before any rate cut…
• …That first cut is now likely delayed to January as the BCB prioritises credibility and inflation convergence.

6 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mixed performance with Andean currencies appreciating despite political noise

• Brazilian Real —  Slips modestly on global headwinds
• Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
• Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution

5 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial sector struggles as BCB prepares for gradual shift

• Brazil’s industrial output shrank again, highlighting persistent weakness across key sectors.
• The labour market—the economy’s last major support pillar—is softening amid tariff shocks and high rates.
• We expect the COPOM to hold rates at 15% today, but easing signals are likely as disinflation gains traction.

4 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BanRep holds rates as inflation risks persist; Chile's recovery continues

• High inflation and wage pressures reinforce BanRep’s cautious policy normalisation stance.
• The fiscal strategy has shifted towards revenue measures, as structural rigidities limit spending cuts.
• Chile’s broad-based rebound in September confirms domestic demand strength and easing mining issues.