Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Activity in Brazil ended 2025 softly, with services weakening and industry hurt by tight conditions…
- …Imminent rate cuts and fiscal support will likely steady growth, though risks remain elevated.
- A chronic lack of stability and voter disaffection cloud elections in Peru, but fundamentals are the key.
- Mexican inflation stays contained but firmer core inflation justifies Banxico’s cautious pause.
- Non-core disinflation offsets tax-driven core stickiness leaving policy easing gradual in Q2.
- Colombia’s January CPI surge reflects the minimum-wage hike and the stalling convergence to target.
- Chile’s IMACEC rebounded, led by commerce, services and resilient domestic demand momentum.
- Falling inflation, pension-reform liquidity and easier credit conditions set a positive tone for H1.
- Banxico pauses easing as sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures delay convergence to target.
- Brazilian Real — Carry, and USD weakness
- Chilean Peso — Copper rally and policy credibility
- Mexican Peso — Strong start to the year, but…
- Brazil’s Q4 industrial weakness confirms a recession in the sector due to tight financial conditions.
- Sentiment has stabilised, but demand remains soft as high rates constrain manufacturing activity.
- A March rate cut will likely support a gradual recovery, but downside risks remain elevated.
- A 100bp rate hike signals alarm over inflation expectations after Colombia’s huge minimum-wage increase.
- Board divisions, fiscal slippage and fuel subsidies complicate BanRep’s efforts to restore policy credibility.
- Strong demand and tight job markets force the Bank to prioritise controlling inflation over near-term growth.
- Ongoing disinflation, cooling activity and BRL strength allow Brazil's COPOM to prepare for cautious easing…
- …The guidance has shifted to a calibration of easing, making a March rate cut the clear baseline.
- The BCCh held rates, signalling patience as disinflation outpaces expectations; further easing remains likely.
- The IPCA-15 confirms Brazil's inflation is contained, pressures localised, and disinflation trends firmly intact.
- Soft demand, a strong BRL and anchored inflation expectations support a March start to rate cuts.
- The external accounts remain relatively solid, allowing gradual Selic cuts without destabilising capital flows.
- Public spending and strong consumption drive activity in Colombia, while industry remains uneven.
- A widening trade deficit, record remittances and rising import intensity are reshaping the external picture.
- The minimum-wage shock is lifting inflation expectations, forcing BanRep to tighten further.
- Inflation is still contained in Mexico, but excise taxes and services are slowing the final stage of disinflation.
- Sticky core inflation and firmer consumption argue for Banxico to pause after an extended easing cycle.
- Trade uncertainty, tariffs and USMCA risk reinforce the need for cautious policy in H1.
- Brazil — Legal battles and electoral risk
- Colombia — Risk premium rises ahead of elections
- Peru — Politics unsettled, markets remain resilient
- Argentina’s inflation fell sharply over 2025, though momentum is fading as utility tariffs normalise…
- …Fiscal discipline and a redesigned FX regime will determine whether inflation falls close to 20% in 2026.
- Primary weakness weighed on November activity in Peru, but underlying growth momentum is strong.
- Brazil’s H2 slowdown reflects tight financial conditions; agriculture and retail prevent a worse picture.
- Retail and services are showing a tentative stabilisation, while industry is struggling under restrictive credit.
- Disinflation and softer activity set the stage for cautious COPOM easing starting in March.
- Brazil — Retesting records as rate-cut bets return
- Mexico — Hitting records on positive sectoral news
- Colombia — Firm flows, and election in focus
- Sticky services inflation and high indexation leave Colombia far from target, despite modest relief in Q4.
- A 23% minimum-wage increase threatens to entrench inflation persistence and delay long-term convergence.
- BanRep faces pressure to tighten aggressively as expectations rise and LatAm peers’ prices stabilise.
- Chile’s CPI surprised to the downside in December, as goods deflation deepened and core pressures eased…
- …A firmer CLP and slowing wages are anchoring inflation, leaving policy rates close to neutral.
- Low inflation, neutral rates and FX management mean BCRP is well positioned as election risks build.
- Sticky core inflation and narrowing policy leeway push Banxico to pause before cautious easing can resume…
- …Temporary fiscal and wage shocks will lift near-term inflation, but disinflation will maintain its easing bias.
- Disinflation is holding in Chile as policy nears neutral and the easing cycle approaches its end.
- Brazilian Real — Flows and shifting rate bets
- Mexican Peso — Range-bound after strong December
- Colombian Peso — Wage shock and geopolitics weigh
- October’s activity rebound reduces recession risk in Mexico, but sectoral momentum remains uneven.
- Services are cushioning any weakness, with industry, investment and external demand capping growth
- USMCA uncertainty, soft remittances and policy noise will keep Mexico’s growth below potential this year.
- Faster disinflation and anchored expectations allow a cautious rate cut in Chile, after two straight holds…
- …Improving global conditions, firmer copper prices and resilient activity support Chile’s macro outlook.
- Growth is resilient in Argentina, as exports strengthen and fiscal discipline anchors stability.
