Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Industrial recovery stalls again.
- The mining rebound and resilient domestic demand
lift activity in Chile; the near-term outlook is benign…
- …Improving sentiment and rising capex point to firmer
momentum heading into early 2026.
- Political clarity and expectations of fiscal discipline
under a Kast presidency reinforce investor confidence.
LATAM ECONOMY SLOWS AS DOMESTIC DEMAND SOFTENS
- POLITICAL NOISE AND EXTERNAL UNCERTAINTY DOMINATE
- Disinflation in Brazil is broadening across goods and services, as supply conditions remain favourable.
- A strong BRL, cooling demand, and easing core pressures will push headline inflation lower in Q1.
- Copom signals patience but improving data support the case for a cautious rate-cutting cycle soon.
- Steady core inflation and temporary non-core shocks reinforce Banxico’s
data-dependent easing.
- Retail sales resilience contrasts with softer sentiment, indicating consumption held up by easing inflation.
- Mexico’s recovery prospects hinge on lower rates, stable external conditions and subdued inflation.
- Robust domestic demand and fiscal expansion in Colombia are pushing economic activity above trend.
- Sticky services inflation and rising wage pressures are delaying a return to BanRep’s target.
- High real rates lend credibility, but fiscal strain and election dynamics keep policy firmly on hold.
- Mexico’s Q3 GDP contraction confirms momentum has stalled, with a base-effect-driven recession likely.
- Industrial weakness, soft job markets and fading public investment continue to weigh on activity.
- Lower interest rates and easing inflation will support a mild 2026 upturn, contingent on trade clarity.
- In one line: Momentum fades as mining weakens, while domestic demand holds firm.
- Brazil — Politics entering a noisy phase
- Mexico — Security tensions and USMCA risks
- Colombia — Risks rising ahead of 2026 election
- Chile’s election showed right-leaning voters rallying behind Kast, giving him an advantage in the run-off…
- …While the left will be limited by its narrow base, struggling to broaden support beyond core voters.
- Q3 GDP suffered a small fall as mining disruption offset solid growth across key non-mining sectors.
- In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.
- In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
- Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
- Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.
- In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.
- In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.
- Colombia’s sticky services inflation, indexation pressures and wage risks limit BanRep’s options.
- The resilient domestic demand and job market are sustaining growth despite fragile external conditions.
- Fiscal uncertainty, political noise and a widening trade deficit challenge BanRep’s cautious stance into 2026.
- In one line: Weak end to Q3 confirms sluggish household demand amid tight financial conditions.
- Inflation in Brazil fell markedly in October, driven by a stronger BRL and softer domestic demand.
- Services are the main growth anchor, while retail sales have weakened due to tight credit and uncertainty.
- The hawkish hold from the COPOM prepares markets for gradual 2026 rate cuts amid ongoing risks.
- Brazil — Rally extends as confidence builds
- Argentina — Soars on election relief, but risks ahead
- Colombia — Outlook still bright but cautious
- Flat CPI in Chile in October confirms easing inflation momentum, allowing gradual BCCh rate cuts ahead.
- Robust trade and capex offset softer consumption, maintaining Chile’s balanced growth in Q4 and Q1.
- Fiscal fragility remains a key medium-term issue, demanding renewed consolidation efforts.
