Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Real consumption likely rose 0.3% in February; unofficial data point to robust non-gas spending in March...
- ...But the lift to incomes from tax refunds will be over soon; lower stock prices will add to the headwinds.
- The February core PCE deflator likely rose 0.4%, due to residual seasonality and some volatile components.
- Brazil — Ceasefire triggers relief rally
- Chile — Upside support driven by oil-price reversal
- Peru — External drivers back in control
- The RBI stayed on hold, as expected, while its new CPI outlook already looks dated, post-ceasefire…
- …A smaller diesel-price hike is now likely, and food gains have peaked; we see 2026 CPI at 3.7%.
- Taiwan’s inflation fell more than expected in March; the CBC‘s red line looks secure, for now.
- US-Iran ceasefire takes the sting out of rising EZ rate expectations, but tightening remains our base case.
- Core orders in German manufacturing rose solidly in February, and surveys point to further upside.
- Retail sales in the Eurozone all but stalled in Q1, and the outlook for Q2 is poor too.
- Industrial production likely dropped in February, driven by falls in mining output and energy supply…
- ...But strong services activity will boost output growth, leaving GDP on track to rise by 0.2% in Q1.
- The fragile US-Iran ceasefire reduces the chances of a hike to Bank Rate this year, but uncertainties remain.
- The biggest one-month jump in gas prices since at least 1957 likely boosted the headline CPI by 0.7pp.
- Airline fares probably jumped too, while used vehicle prices are overdue a rebound…
- …But prices for other services likely rose only modestly, justifying the FOMC’s wait-and-see stance.
- Growth in Chile is losing speed, but the central bank has no room to respond any time soon.
- High oil prices are worsening the inflation outlook, limiting the scope for easing.
- Weak activity, high unemployment, fragile confidence and tight policy are delaying the recovery.
- GDP growth in Vietnam cooled just a tad in Q1, to 8.0% from 8.3%, if stripping out residual seasonality.
- We still see full-year 2026 growth moderating to 7.5%; high export base effects are now in the frame.
- This oil shock is looking worse for Vietnam than the one in 2022; we’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to 4.8%.
- France is set to swing right in the 2027 presidential election, but that’s not strictly good news for RN.
- Big declines in energy consumption and output due to mild weather likely stung French growth in Q1.
- French tax revenues ended 2025 on a high, bringing much relief to the embattled minority government.
- Surging fuel costs and a pullback in spending led to a drop in the March PMI.
- We stick to our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- We expect the MPC to place more weight on rocketing input costs rather than slowing demand.
- The shocks to energy and fertilizer markets mean that food prices will climb through spring and summer…
- …But even a 20% rise in wholesale food prices would only add around 0.1pp to headline CPI inflation.
- The ongoing surge in gas prices is a far bigger and more immediate worry for consumers and the Fed.
- February’s solid retail sales likely were lifted by the weather and a short-lived boost from tax refunds.
- The underlying trend probably is still soft, and looks set to slow further amid the shock to energy prices.
- We think consumption growth of around 2% in Q1 will be followed by unchanged spending in Q2.
- Mexican peso — Policy shift weakens the carry story
- Colombian peso — Carry and oil drive outperformance
- Chilean peso — Oil shock dominates the outlook
- Stagflationary signs were seen in ASEAN’s PMI, as in India, but inflation is a bigger worry for the former.
- Indonesia’s soft March CPI is a big misdirect; we now see an eventual fuel price hike of 5% this year…
- …February’s export print was a let-down, but should mark the year’s low, as commodities will soon help.
- Higher energy prices in March more than offset the disinflationary impact of the strong Swiss franc....
- ....and likely pushed the headline inflation rate in Switzerland to 0.6%, from 0.1% in February.
- A surge in price-setting expectations suggests inflation will pick up quickly over the coming months.
- The housing market was solid before the energy price shock, but activity will grind lower in 2026.
- Measures of supply are ticking up, which will put further pressure on prices.
- We look for house price inflation of 1.0% in Q4 2026, down from our previous forecast of 3.0%.
- February’s JOLTS report continues to paint a very weak picture of labor demand.
- The Conference Board survey’s job numbers also suggest payroll gains will remain very sluggish…
- …Putting further upward pressure on unemployment and undermining wage growth.
- Brazil’s job market is cooling from tight levels, limiting faster disinflation and prospects for rate cuts.
- Mexico’s labour market is tight at the headline level, but job quality is deteriorating, with rising informality…
- …Strong wage growth supports consumption but reinforces inflation pressures and structural issues.
- India’s Feb. IP validates our above-consensus call, but the post-GST pop in consumer goods is done…
- …Output looks poised to hit a wall in March; last week’s fuel-tax cuts buy consumers time, not relief.
- Thai consumption was having a decent Q1 pre-war, amid an easing in structural high-debt headwinds.
- The official March PMIs support our view that China will be relatively resilient to the energy-price shock.
- Output and demand activity indicators were solid, despite the surging manufacturing input price gauge.
- Private-sector sentiment took a small dent in March, but nothing like the fall amid last year’s tariff war.
