Pantheon Publications

12 December 2025 US Monitor Weak October retail sales likely to set the tone for Q4

• We think retail sales dropped by a hefty 0.7% in October, dragged down by a big fall in auto sales. 
• A raft of indicators suggest that consumers’ spending will grow at a negligible pace in Q4. 
• The Thanksgiving week drop in continuing claims is a seasonal fluke; the trend remains upwards.

12 December 2025 LatAm Monitor COPOM holds as disinflation makes headway; is a January cut plausible?

• Benign inflation prints in Brazil strengthen the case for
  easing, yet de-anchored expectations force caution.
• Activity is softening without collapsing, supporting a
  gradual, data-dependent transition towards Q1 cuts.
• But external volatility, fiscal uncertainty and currency
  risks keep the bar to a January rate cut set high.

12 December 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview 2: headline falling to 3.5%, but services up to 4.7%

• A food-price drop and tobacco-duty base effects should lower CPI inflation to 3.5% in November.
• We are tracking a chunky hotel-price rise, while a large airfares base effect will drop out of the figures...
• …So, we look for CPI services inflation to increase to 4.7% in November, from 4.5% in October.

12 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor SNB stands pat; we still expect it to stay on hold until early 2027

• The SNB held its policy rate at 0% at its final meeting of the year yesterday, as widely expected. 
• Next year will be boring for Swiss central bank watchers; we expect no change in rates until 2027. 
• The SNB thinks policy is expansionary; it will likely hike next, in 2027, as inflation nears the 1% mark.
    

12 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor "End" to BSP's easing will come when rates fall to 4.25%

• The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
  benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
• …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
  worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
• Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
  high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.

11 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Our nowcasts are in line with our forecasts for the big four

• The French and Spanish economies are losing pace in early Q4, according to the hard data.
• Italian data for October were weak, but carry-overs suggest a better Q4 than Q3 anyway.
• The spike in German wage growth was likely due to one-offs; it will pull up the EZ total.

11 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Equity Update November records, and cautious upside in 2026

• Brazil — Bull phase matures amid policy scrutiny
• Mexico — Underlying support holding
• Chile —  Testing resistance ahead of run-off election  

11 December 2025 UK Monitor MPC preview: cutting rates, and leaving the door open to one more

• We expect the MPC to vote five-to-four to cut Bank Rate at its meeting on December 18.
• Hawks will likely note supply-side weakness, and that the Budget raises medium-term inflation a little.
• The MPC will need to change its guidance for gradual further cuts as it approaches neutral.

11 December 2025 US Monitor Expect a brief skip in the Fed's easing cycle, not a long hiatus

The dots imply three regional Fed presidents who will
vote in 2026 disagreed with this meeting’s easing...

...But we reckon all the permanent voters expect to
ease in 2026; labor data will trigger March action.

Year-over-year growth in the ECI was stable at 3.6%
in Q3, but leading indicators signal a sharp fall soon. 

10 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation uptick signals caution, but Banxico still moving towards easing

• Temporary price shocks lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying pressures are modest…
• …Ongoing tariff risk and agricultural volatility keep the inflation risk balance tilted slightly to the upside.
• Inflation is improving in Brazil, but fiscal risk and tight job conditions will keep policymakers cautious.

10 December 2025 UK Monitor Labour market preview: Budget chaos to hit jobs, but pay stubborn

• We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 13K month-to-month in November, as Budget worries hit jobs.
• The headline LFS unemployment rate will hold at 5.0% in October, as August’s single-month rise corrects.
• Pay growth to slow in October, but wage gains look set to stabilise over the coming 12 months.

10 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Is the German economy about to take off? Early Q4 data suggest so

• German trade figures for October add to the run of positive figures for early Q4. 
• Our nowcast model suggests we are right to look for an increase in GDP in Q4 after stagnation in Q3. 
• Risks remain, however, as leading indicators point to renewed weakness in goods trade in November.

10 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC likely will signal a Q1 pause, but only tentatively

• Investors already expect a two-meeting hiatus in the easing cycle; the FOMC will not signal a longer wait.
• Recent data surprises have reinforced the case for easing; much more data will be available in January.
• We expect 75bp of easing in 2026, but fiscal policy and FOMC personnel changes cloud the outlook.

10 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's export growth hits 56%; is millennium-high GDP growth next?

• Taiwan’s exports exploded by 56% in November, far above expectations, driven by AI server demand…
• …We are now upgrading our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 12.0%, the highest this millennium.
• Philippine sales volumes continue to slump; only so much borrowing and remittances can do.

9 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's exports continue to cool on US payback, but Q4 looks solid

• Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
• …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
• Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.

9 December 2025 US Monitor Weaker labor demand is more than offsetting the immigration hit

• Immigration has slowed sharply this year, but the labor force likely still is growing, slowly.
• The recent upward creep in unemployment implies labor demand has slowed by more than supply.  
• Higher unemployment will squeeze wage growth and keep the pressure on the FOMC to continue easing.

9 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor German data suggest EZ industry started Q4 on a strong footing

• German industry enjoyed a strong start to Q4 and points to a solid October for EZ industry. 
• French and German construction data suggest EZ construction also had a decent October. 
• The first investor sentiment gauge for December, while subdued, still implies upside risk to EZ GDP.

9 December 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview 1: Slowing to 3.5% as food prices drop

• We expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.5% in November, from 3.6% in October.
• A month-to-month fall in food prices and base effects from duty hikes in 2024 will drag inflation lower.
• Our forecast for headline CPI inflation in November sees it 10bp higher than the MPC expects.

9 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation softens slightly in Colombia, but risks remain tilted upwards

• Food deflation softened Colombia’s inflation, but sticky services and indexation are delaying disinflation.
• A widening external deficit and volatile financing flows underscore Colombia’s rising vulnerabilities.
• Minimum-wage pressures and firm domestic demand reinforce BanRep’s high-for-longer policy stance.

5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.