Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
- Most Committee members stuck to language implying an easing bias, rather than placate the hawks.
- Powell’s decision to stay on means the President must use Miran’s seat to place Warsh on the FOMC.
- We look for Q1 GDP growth of 1.8%, with consumption mediocre and investment lifted by the AI boom.
- Regular gasoline prices hit a 2026 high earlier this week, despite the modest dip in oil prices.
- Spending on fuel and discretionary services is solid for now, but demand usually wilts after a few months.
- The labor market components of the Conference Board survey suggest hiring remains very weak.
- The FOMC statement is unlikely to cite “two-sided” policy risk, despite better labor market data…
- …GDP growth is slow, upside inflation risks have eased, and inflation expectations remain unalarming.
- GDPNow’s Q1 estimate understates the rebound in federal spending, but the underlying picture is weak.
- Tax refunds have more than offset the hit from higher gas prices, so far, but this support will fade shortly.
- The BEA’s impartiality faces scrutiny this week when it chooses the PCE deflator input for legal services.
- Tariff costs are down and refund applications are now going in; retailers can hold back raising prices.
- Bank lending to businesses has shot up this year; often this signals faster growth in capex...
- ...But this time the jump in lending likely reflects a tightening of access to private credit.
- The S&P Global PMI probably is overstating the upward pressure on core inflation.
Returning to last year’s average; a further recovery looks unlikely.
Initially resilient, but near-real time data now show gas price pain.
- Weekly ADP payroll data and the ASA’s staffing index have picked up, but both have poor track records.
- Measures of job openings have worsened, and our preferred indicators of payrolls haven’t improved.
- The impact of AI on the economy looks too uncertain to justify rate cuts in the near term.
- March control retail sales rose the most since August, despite the jump in gas prices...
- ...but spending is unlikely to rise further in Q2, as support from tax refunds and the weather fades.
- Kevin Warsh sounded less sure that AI adoption will make room for much lower rates.
CONSUMPTION TO SLOW IN Q2 AS REAL INCOMES FALL...
- ...FOMC TO WORRY MORE ABOUT JOBS THAN THE CPI IN Q4
- Zillow’s measure of new rents increased in April by less than 0.10%, for the fourth straight month.
- The recent further rise in the vacancy rate and pickup in multi-family starts implies the glut will continue.
- Rent’s contribution to core CPI inflation will be 0.3pp lower by year-end, overwhelming the energy hit.
- Households often borrow more when gas prices surge, and banks have become more willing to lend...
- ...But high interest rates, elevated delinquencies and low confidence suggest people will be cautious.
- Surveys suggest a better times ahead for manufacturers, but big headwinds remain.
Retailers’ healthy margins suggest tariff pass-though now complete.
- The 0.1% rise in the March core PPI masked heat in components which feed into the core PCE deflator...
- ...But inflation still look set to fall in H2 as the uplift from tariffs fades, offsetting the energy price boost.
- The fall in the capex intentions index of the NFIB survey to a post-GFC low is most likely noise.
Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
- In one line: Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
- A record jump in gas prices hugely boosted the CPI in March; expect a further 0.2pp hit in April.
- The core CPI likely will be lifted in April by a rebound in used auto prices and a catch-up increase in rents...
- ...But the fading tariff boost and slowing rent rises will drag down inflation in H2, despite higher oil prices.
- Real consumption likely rose 0.3% in February; unofficial data point to robust non-gas spending in March...
- ...But the lift to incomes from tax refunds will be over soon; lower stock prices will add to the headwinds.
- The February core PCE deflator likely rose 0.4%, due to residual seasonality and some volatile components.
- The biggest one-month jump in gas prices since at least 1957 likely boosted the headline CPI by 0.7pp.
- Airline fares probably jumped too, while used vehicle prices are overdue a rebound…
- …But prices for other services likely rose only modestly, justifying the FOMC’s wait-and-see stance.
