Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Samuel Tombs
- Pass-through from the tariffs to consumer prices slowed in July, but will re-accelerate in the fall.
- The rebound in airline fares has further to run, but services inflation otherwise looks set to moderate.
- The FOMC likely will ease policy next month, despite more tariff-led inflation, to support the labor market.
- This year’s consumer slowdown has little to do with worries about taxes, more with trade and tariffs.
- The recent recovery in sentiment reduces recession risk, but the outlook for spending still is dim.
- Rising continuing claims reinforce the idea that the labor market has loosened materially.
- Swings in home prices have a far bigger dollar-for-dollar wealth effect than movements in stock prices.
- Ongoing weakness in the housing implies a trivial boost to consumption from asset prices in H2 2025.
- Labor-matching efficiency is impeded slightly by high new mortgage rates, but is comparable to the 2010s.
- China’s share of US imports has collapsed to just 7%, from 13%, but looks set to rebound soon.
- Some importers likely have gamed the de minimis exemption, but the loophole will close later this month.
- Services inflation likely will remain contained, despite the further increase in the ISM prices index.
- The average effective tariff rate has risen to 19%, from 16% a month ago; risks tilt towards a further rise.
- Shifting trade flows, margin compression and price rises abroad will temper the boost to consumer prices.
- The DOGE cuts were a small but significant drag on GDP in Q2, and probably will be again in Q3.
- The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
- Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
- We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.
