Pantheon Publications

22 July 2025 US Monitor State-level payrolls cast further doubt on a migrant exodus

• BLS data suggesting the foreign-born workforce is already rapidly shrinking look implausible.
• Sector-level payrolls in California and Texas suggest most undocumented workers remain in their jobs.
• A bird’s eye view of employment growth in the other 48 states and DC tells a similar story.

22 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's recovery continues, but fiscal storm clouds are gathering

• Consumer-driven momentum and services strength supported Colombia’s Q2 growth, but industry lags.
• The fiscal deficit is on track to breach 8% of GDP, with no credible correction in sight.
• Disinflation is set to resume in Mexico and Brazil, but structural pressures and trade risks persist.

22 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan faces political shift; Korea navigates export risk and trade talks

• Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
• July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
• A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.

22 July 2025 UK Monitor The UK has an inflation problem; expectations are deanchoring

• Sticky wage and price gains are being caused in part by falling MPC credibility.
• Household inflation expectations sit higher than their relationship with inflation implies, and are still rising.
• The UK is an outlier in Europe, where inflation expectations seem to have behaved much better.

18 July 2025 US Monitor Clearer signs of tariff-induced weakness in June retail sales volumes

• The modest gains in nominal retail sales in June were boosted by price rises; sales volumes were stagnant.
• Real consumption likely rose by just 1½% in Q2 and is on track for even slower growth in Q3.   
• The cost of new tariffs has so far been borne entirely by US importers, rather than foreign exporters. 

18 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia holding up as consumers spend and manufacturing rebounds

• Retail and industrial data in Colombia point to a broad-based recovery, despite political volatility.
• A stronger COP, easing inflation and resilient job market are fuelling durable goods consumption.
• Mr. Petro’s proposals, tax reform and external risks still cloud the investment outlook heading into 2026.

18 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's exports slide in June, raising risk of technical recession

• Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
• Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical  recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
• The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.

18 July 2025 UK Monitor Job falls easing, and pay growth too high for 2% inflation

• Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
• The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
• We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.

17 July 2025 UK Monitor Most of June's CPI inflation rise was genuine

• Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
• We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
• We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.

17 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's surprise July cut to be followed by at least two more by year-end

• Bank Indonesia surprised the thin consensus for a  hold yesterday with its fourth 25bp rate reduction…
• …We continue to see an end-2025 rate of 4.75%, especially given BI’s rising anxiety over loan growth.
• Indian net exports were grim in Q2, even with US front-loading, but this won’t be seen year-over-year.

17 July 2025 LatAm Political Update Tariffs meet domestic political crosswinds

• Brazil —US tariffs rattle the outlook
• Mexico —  Tariffs test Ms. Sheinbaum’s resolve
• Chile — Bracing for copper tariffs

17 July 2025 US Monitor PPI data show tariffs are inflationary, but only for goods

• PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.28% increase in the June core PCE deflator; tariffs mostly to blame.
• The core PPI was unchanged partly due to a plunge in prices charged for accommodation, which are volatile.
• Announcing a shadow fed Chair is a bigger risk than removing Mr. Powell immediately from his post.

16 July 2025 US Monitor Tariff-related price hikes hit in June, with worse to come in July

The June rise in core goods prices, ex-autos, was the biggest in three years; import-sensitive prices leapt...

...But only a quarter of the tariff costs has come through so far; expect even bigger price rises in July.

CPI services inflation will continue to cool, but it will offset only about half the pick-up in goods inflation.  

16 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's steady real GDP print masks intensifying deflation

• .China’s Q2 real GDP growth weathered the tariff war, as exports to non-US markets picked up…
• …But nominal GDP growth was the lowest since Q4 2022, as deflation steepened.
• Consumption is likely to remain sluggish, with wage growth slowing in Q2.

16 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Argentina's inflation falls and policy anchors hold firm; BCRP holds rates

• Disinflation is accelerating in Argentina, with headline and core prices reaching multi-year lows in June.
• Tight fiscal and monetary policy continue to anchor expectations, despite the ARS and political noise.
• BCRP held at 4.5%, signalling caution amid global uncertainty and anchored inflation expectations.

16 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor More cuts to our already-soft inflation forecasts for India

• India’s two main inflation gauges were very soft in June, with food prices now deflating at all levels…
• …Food deflation at the retail level will likely persist until the end of 2025, due in part to base effects.
• We have downgraded our average CPI forecasts for this year and next to 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively. 

16 July 2025 UK Monitor The ONS's BICS survey is a goldmine of information

• The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
• The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
• US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.

15 July 2025 US Monitor Retail slowdown likely continued in June, as headline sales flat-lined

• We think headline retail sales were little changed in June, after falling in April and May.
• A small price-driven increase in control sales was likely mostly offset by another fall in auto sales.
• Homebase are roughly consistent with 150K for July private payrolls, but we prefer to trust other indicators.

15 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's 'glass half-full' money and credit data

• China’s broad credit growth rose in June, but mainly thanks to government-bond issuance. 
• The rise in corporate borrowing is distorted by the local-government debt swap; it’s likely still sluggish. 
• M1 jump is hopeful but may prove a blip given the lack of supporting data elsewhere pointing to an upturn. 

15 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's recovery stalls as financial and external headwinds mount

• Brazil’s weakness in industry and services highlights the growing drag from tighter financial conditions.
• Mr. Trump’s tariff move threatens exports, investment and already-fragile economic momentum.
• Mexico has also been hit by the tariff noise, but markets are still betting on a negotiated outcome.