Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
Challenger data point to a big rise in claims this spring.
Samuel TombsUS
Why use a broken compass when you have GPS?
Samuel TombsUS
- February’s rise in Homebase education jobs was small only because January’s fall was relatively mild.
- The broad-based jump in Challenger job cuts shows clear cracks are forming in the labor market.
- Trade data likely miscount a surge in gold imports; revisions will result in a smaller net trade hit to GDP.
Samuel TombsUS
- The near-3% annualized decline in GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed’s model is far too downbeat.
- Consumption will recover in February and GDPNow likely is misinterpreting the surge in gold imports.
- The ADP and ISM services employment indicators are both unreliable guides to payrolls.
Samuel TombsUS
Still set for decent spending growth in Q1 overall, but a slowdown looms further ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 175K increase in February payrolls, despite the slightly weaker steer from surveys.
- The weather hit on January jobs likely unwound, and it’s too soon to see federal layoffs in the data.
- Homebase data look alarming, but they are too skewed towards hospitality to be a useful barometer.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico would boost the headline PCE deflator by 0.5%.
- Our calculation assumes trade flows shift and manufacturers and retailers absorb some of the costs.
- We see little risk of workers obtaining bigger wage rises in response; services disinflation will continue.
Samuel TombsUS
- January’s fall in consumption was due to residual seasonality, bad weather and auto-specific issues.
- A February rebound is signalled by timely data on auto sales, consumer lending and restaurant visits.
- A mid-year lull in spending, as real income growth slows, is more likely than a sudden stop in Q1.
Samuel TombsUS
