Pantheon Publications

15 June 2026 Eurozone Monitor SNB on hold in Q2, but set to publish higher inflation forecasts

• The SNB will leave rates on hold throughout 2026, unlike its neighbouring central bank, the ECB.
• The SNB’s Q2 projections for inflation in the medium term will be slightly higher than before.
• We expect the Chairman to reiterate the SNB’s willingness to curb the strength of the CHF.

11 June 2026 Eurozone Monitor MPC preview: another "active" hold, biased towards a hike

• We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
• Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
• But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP & Unemployment, Eurozone, Q1/March 2026

In one line: Q1 growth undershoots expectations; labour market holding up, for now.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP & Unemployment, Eurozone, Q1/March 2026

In one line: Q1 growth undershoots expectations; labour market holding up, for now.

EZ Datanote: Advance Q1 GDP, Italy, Q1 2026

In one line: The energy shock will hurt Italian growth more than other major EZ economies.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q1 2026

In one line: Beats expectations, but this strength won’t last

EZ Datanote: EC ESI, Eurozone, April 2026

In one line: Inflation expectations soar, sentiment slumps.

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Business Confidence, Italy, April 2026

In one line: Broad-based fall in confidence; inflation expectations soar.  

28 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation rose further in April; prospects for growth look poor

• Swiss headline inflation is likely to pick up further as the disinflationary impact of the strong CHF eases.
• Second-round effects from the energy shock on core prices now look increasingly likely.
• The Swiss economy looks set for a spell of stagflation, just like its Eurozone neighbours. 

EZ Datanote: ZEW Economic Sentiment, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Expectations in April 2026 even poorer than after “Liberation Day” in April last year.

EZ Datanote: Construction Output, Eurozone, February 2026

In one line: No signs of Germany’s infrastructure spending spree before the energy shock. 

20 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor Energy shock tests Italy's fiscal rectitude more than Spain's

• Italy risks breaching the EU’s 3% deficit-to-GDP rule in the event of a prolonged energy shock.
• Spain’s budget stalemate since late 2022 gives it the fiscal firepower to mitigate the hit to its economy.
• Borrowing costs could climb higher still, but policy backstops will keep EZ bond markets relatively calm.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, February 2026

In one line: EZ industry was probably a drag on Q1 growth. 

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, February 2026

In one line: Industrial production likely fell over Q1.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, February 2026

In one line: Spanish industry was performing poorly even before the energy shock. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, February 2026

In one line: Decline will be exacerbated over the coming months.

7 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor Further rise in price pressures will keep the SNB on the sidelines

• Higher energy prices in March more than offset the disinflationary impact of the strong Swiss franc.
• But a decline in domestic inflation kept the headline rate from rising as much as the consensus expected.
• Headline inflation will rise further this year, as domestic price pressures are building.