Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: A strong rise in M1 growth; did lending growth really slow?
In one line: Dovish, but far from underwriting a further rate cut.
In one line: Dovish, but far from underwriting a further rate cut.
In one line: Sentiment improved, but unemployment fears remain high.
- In one line: Members say “why wait” via a surprise cut.
- In one line: Members say “why wait” via a surprise cut.
In one line: Strong momentum in domestic demand, but risks still loom in early 2026.
- - CHINA'S POLICYMAKERS FOCUS ON LONGER-TERM GOALS
- - PM TAKAICHI LIKELY MORE PRAGMATIC THAN FEARED
- - BOK RELIEF AS KRW PRESSURE EASES, FOR NOW
Still pointing to a weaker labor market, but big recent revisions raise questions.
- In one line: Core pressures keep inflation near 4%, limiting Banxico’s room to ease.
- AI-related capex and wealth effects from gains in tech stocks were major growth tailwinds in 2025.
- AI’s impact on productivity is less clear, although we see tentative signs of an small boost emerging.
- The impact on the labor market still appears modest, despite the scare stories.
- The BoT surprised almost all forecasters, including us, with an extra 25bp cut to its policy rate to 1.00%.
- At the same time, though, it has conceded the battle against structurally subdued GDP growth…
- …We still believe that 1.00% will mark the terminal rate, but more CPI misses could force another cut.
- EZ inflation will likely stay low in February, but the bar for further ECB easing remains high…
- …A rebound in liquid fuel inflation is the main near-term upside risk to EZ inflation.
- German domestic demand posted strong growth in Q4; just what the doctor ordered.
- The latest public finances data will support the Chancellor by showing borrowing below profile.
- But the headline figures flatter the overall picture, where spending pressures are higher.
- We expect the OBR to revise down borrowing in 2030/31 slightly, though policy U-turns are mounting.
In one line: LPRs unchanged, with China relying on fiscal policy to support growth
In one line: LPRs unchanged, with China relying on fiscal policy to support growth
- US - Does 2025 consumption data support the K-shaped narrative?
- EUROZONE - EZ February PMIs keep alive the idea of a modest cyclical upturn
- UK - March rate cut highly likely after jobless rate hits 5 year high
- CHINA+ - Momentum but no boom in the Year of the Horse
- EM ASIA - Has the sun set on Taiwan’s non-electronics industries?
- LATAM - Mexico activity stabilises after Q4 rebound, but risks loom in 2026
- February regional Fed surveys point to sluggish growth in activity and continued capex caution.
- Employment intentions are unchanged from 2025; wage expectations point to inflation returning to 2%.
- The Conference Board survey’s labor market components point to further weakness ahead.
- Food volatility lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying dynamics remain the policy constraint.
- Core inflation is moderating slightly, yet stickiness in services is keeping Banxico cautious about easing.
- Gradual disinflation supports rate cuts in Q2, though risks remain tilted modestly upwards.
