Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- We think the headline rate of CPI inflation fell to 3.5% in February from 4.0% in January.
- Risks are for a lower reading, as our headline CPI inflation forecast is on the cusp of rounding to 3.4%.
- We expect services inflation to slow to 6.1% in February, from 6.5%, matching the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for PAYE employment to rise 30K in February and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.8%.
- We expect a 0.4% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses...
- ...Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to exceed the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Constrained by economic forecasts, the Chancellor mustered tax cuts of only 0.5% of GDP in 2024/25.
- That boosts GDP 0.2%, and inflation less. Duty freezes lower MPC near-term inflation forecasts 0.2pp.
- This won’t shift the economic needle, or the MPC’s thinking, much. We expect the first rate cut in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think GDP rose 0.2% month-to-month in January, as retail sales stormed back from December’s drop.
- That is not a flash in the pan, as the PMI shows firms’ optimism in the growth outlook at a two-year high.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.5% in February, from 4.0% in January, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Base effects should cut services inflation, while weaker costs continue to reduce goods inflation.
- Another ONS update to the CPI weights should have only a small impact outside of airfares.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
