Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

22 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor We're Below Consensus on Growth and Inflation; ECB to Cut in March

  • GDP is likely to rebound from Q1 next year, albeit slowly; consensus expects a quicker recovery. 
  •  Inflation will fall more sharply than the consensus or ECB expects in H1, if we are correct on January…
  •  ...If so, the ECB will cut rates five times next year, starting in March, earlier than consensus expects.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor German Consumers Still Refusing to Spend; Construction Struggling

  • German consumer confidence is on the rise but risks to our consumption call remain to the downside.  
  • The EZ current account surplus climbed in October; the trend in the euro suggests it will decline soon.  
  • EZ construction started Q4 on a rough note, and all signs point to the struggle stretching into 2024.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, December 2023

In one line: German firms will be happy to say Goodbye to 2023! 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Labour Costs & Trade, Eurozone, Q3/October

In one line: Still-strong growth in labour costs; net trade on track for a rise in Q4?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, December 2023

In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, December 2023

In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q4 2023

In one line:  A clear dovish shift; rate cuts are next. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, EZ, October 2023

In one line: Exaggerated by an Irish drop, but still not good news.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor BTP-Bund Spread at 100bp Sounds Fanciful, but It's Doable

  • The BTP-Bund spread is currently around 175bp, but we think it will fall to 100bp by end-2024...
  • ..In line with the current spread between Spanish government-bond yields and Bund yields...
  • ...Faster QT than we anticipate risks preventing the spread from falling to 100bp.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, October 2023

In one line: Confirming that output fell in each of the big four in October.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence